osfan24

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Comparing from the previous run we are seeing a much stronger signal for the storm off the coast though it is a touch slower. Also of note we have a fairly significant camp of lows to the west of the mean low (roughly 20) most of which are typically in a good spot for the DC/Balt region. We are also seeing a better press of high pressures from the north and west at this time. 

That looks really promising.

Retreating high and first third of December seems like a concerning combo.

8 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

30"+ of snow in the Triad of NC.  Exactly where we want the snowstorm to be at this stage, right?

LOL in early December as well. I'll take the under.

That northern stream piece is no joke. No wonder it's suppressed. Hopefully, it's farther north and not as strong as we get closer to the event (or non-event).

31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Trend leading into 12z was a weaker southern shortwave. So far , it seems that trend has been reversed. And that was the negative trend I was most concerned about. I’m not much  worried about too much confluence, particularly as the storm has again slowed by 12 hours or so.

I'm concerned that the timeframe keeps getting pushed back.

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

This feels like that storm last year that the EURO kept on squashing all the way down to Florida, smh I take it a total whiff is still on the table...darn. At least it's just December 2nd and we're in a nino (and not as likely to be starved for snow this winter)

Yeah I think I mentioned that possibility yesterday. Definitely a concern.

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Dont know if gefs are rushing things or not but the pattern certainly improves late in the run...

How can I access GEFS? And EPS for that matter? I use Tropical Tidbits to access most of the models.

1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I think you’re talking about the HECS that was modeled last year to hit around the last week of Dec? I think that vanished once inside day 6-7 if I remember correctly.

Yeah, I think that's it. If I remember correctly, it ended up squashed into Miami or Cuba.

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think @psu once said that models do much better in nino/blocking years. Do you guys see a scenario where there is no storm at all? Not seeing this att

Of course there is a scenario with no storm at all. Remember last year that one storm that was just going to roll out of the southwest and throw a ton of moisture at us and it just vanished? I think we need to get inside of a week before it becomes a serious threat. I do like how it has the look of a classic blockbuster for our region. It's just really, really early for that kind of storm for our region. I thought 12/19/09 was super early for us.

Obviously nothing written in stone this far out, but at least there is a good degree of confidence in tracking a serious threat given that all the models have it in some form. 

2 hours ago, frd said:

Well, thats great to hear, I did posted that a little while ago, but I was reading the entire thread and came across this .

 I feel you might enjoy. ( unless you saw it too ) .

I have read HM every day for the last 15 years , back to Wright Weather days, and dial up, and it is not often HM will allude to a weather period as possibly being "bad-ass " 

 

 

 

 

 

Is he talking about mid-late December or mid-to-late January being awesome?

I'd love a legit Christmas snowstorm, but no way I'm passing up on a winter with this type of potential and hype for one storm in December.

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Quick clipper-like system moves through at 210-216 with quick burst of snow in the morning for most of us on Friday, November the 30th... 10:1 SR TT snow map suggests 1-3" fwiw

Man, wish we could lock that up. Would love a nice little system like that.

9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

 Just comparing last night's GFS run with this morning GFS run, it seems like night and day. Last night's run runs a storm well north and west of us while this morning it pops a storm off the MA coast in the December 1st time frame. Is this morning's GFS possibly picking up on what the EPS depicted overnight?

 

Maybe, but I just think it's too far out in time to look at things that closely. Maybe come late in the weekend or early next week, actual individual threats can be identified and analyzed.

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Weren't you the one saying no accumulating snow outside of the mountains on the last storm?

LOL no. I always thought the favored areas would do quite well in the last storm. Was surprised we got accumulation on the roads in the cities.

31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

DT starting to honk about the 30th. 

https://www.wxrisk.com/is-dt-secsy-sexy/

I still think the cold air is going to be marginal around that time so I’d lean toward the first week of December personally, but hey, I’m good with both working out.

You forgot the weenie rule that it will produce its own cold air!

Really nasty outside. Cold, heavy mist/rain falling and the wind really picking up and blowing it in your face. Imaging the blizzard-like scene if it was snow.

Pretty sure it's just plain old rain here now. Snow/slush starting to melt/wash away. Nasty out there right now. Cold, wet, and raw. Just glad it's not windy, too.

12 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Howard County got shafted. Maybe 1-2". Did we get stuck between bands? Warm air coming off of the bay? We had periods of moderate snow but it just didn't seem to want to pile up.

Yep. I know Elkridge/BWI area kept missing the bands. Most of them seemed to be Ellicott City and west. 

Looks like a mostly rain with a little sleet mix now, and it doesn't look like freezing rain either.

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Unless I'm missing something in my records, this is the biggest Nov event in my yard since I bought this house in 03. I wasn't here in 95 and I was in Frostburg in 87 so I missed Vet day. Very nice Nov event. 

Is there anywhere that this kind of information can be researched or easily accessed? I'm always curious about both daily and monthly snowfall records, as well as remembering certain storms but forgetting the exact date and amount, but don't know where I can look it up.

This band does appear to be pingers, so that should do it. Exciting start, but a bit disappointing here given the obs all around me and the fact that this big band is not snow, but happy for all of you that cashed in on the better returns. Going to hope we get a lot of sleet the rest of the afternoon. Pretty wild start to winter, except it's only the halfway mark of November!

This might be the rare storm that DCA records more than BWI. At least that next band doesn't look like it can miss......I think.

Elkridge/BWI been sitting under light greens forever now. Jealous of you guys sitting under the yellows and getting legit snow.

Very light snow. Can't seem to get the yellows over me. All seem to be just to my north and west. Hoping we get a band to come up soon.

Back to mostly light snow.