osfan24

5 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Where has that been? And only a week away!

I hate the way this is all going after it was supposed to be an epic winter after such pitiful seasons of late. I'm just going to pray we fluke our way into a monster HECS like 2016 and just call it a winter and get after it again next year.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The weeklies age already invalid. Day 15 now looks nothing like Day 16 on the weeklies. And there was a lot of divergence within the weeklies when I looked at the members. Are people really feeling confident given the look or are they just trying not to be negative?  Maybe I’m missing something. I hate the direction everything is going right now. 

When psuhoffman is turning into Ji, it might be time to turn out the lights.

4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

it's all relative I think...  It's not a KU pattern like we all wanted for weeks on end but it's a pretty good pattern and a KU is far from being out of the question.  Both gefs and eps suggesting some ridging across the south....but look at the low level arctic air that is still pressing....same panel that CAPE just posted.  And by this time the MJO should be all but dead again.

 

Right, but again, we are talking 15 days out. That's the problem. Nothing is really moving forward in time. And then on the rare occasion that it does, poof, it suddenly disappears.

Pushing the pattern back a week from January 20 was fine. Gives us basically a month and a half of winter to work with. But now we seem like we might be pushing into the first week of February still without a great pattern.

Nothing major, but 18z GFS is just a parade of storms swinging down from Canada into our region.

I can't believe reputable people even post that garbage.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

BWI with 0.9" and DCA with 1".  

Ask and I shall receive! .9 makes a lot of sense. Actually seems accurate for a change.

Think I got about an inch. I wonder what BWI ended up with.

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Do we know what the heck is going on here

Ha this is like that one run that gave us 20 inches of snow the last storm and then cut it in half the next run never to be seen again.

Batch in WV is our last hope since this current batch is motoring. I'm alternating between a light and moderate snow shower and already have the lightest dusting. Even parts of the street have caved.

ICON still not totally folding. 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think there's a period of some duration (days to ~1-2 weeks) where we're northern stream dominated it looks like if that pattern manifests.  But the Ops runs with those type of looks have still been active, so think some snow is still quite possible.  

We have time, but we really can't get into a situation where the pattern doesn't settle in until the end of Jan/beginning of Feb and then we have close to two weeks of northern stream action if we want to have a big February.

Random question, but why does HRRR usually give 18 hour forecasts but sometimes (seems random to me) the run is for 24 hours? For instance, 18z is 24 hours but 17z was 18 hours.

I thought for sure the NAMs looked better given the duration of snow but it must be really light given the totals. 

6z Euro looks meh. A few hours of snow maybe for the northern tier but no ice and no backside snow.

Bernie Rayno is expecting a shift a bit more southeast and has everyone north of DC in the 1-3 range.

7 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Anything that keeps snow on the ground... I’d really like this snowpack to last.

Better hope this weekend isn't a monsoon, though much of it will probably melt this week either way. Doesn't take that long for fairly fluffy snow to melt when its sunny and above freezing.

Looks like Cranky likes rain for this one with maybe a late transition to some snow showers.

The MJO and AO changes are very concerning and disappointing, but we've seen things flip quickly so who knows. I was really excited about the weekend storm but it certainly now looks like either a slushy mess or straight rain, but maybe the system evolves. This last one didn't look so hot and then look how it turned out for a good portion of the forum.

3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Huge truth here!

 

 

Seems to be implying this is likely an inland runner and not frozen for us.

4 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

DCA - 10.3"

BWI - 6.6"

IAD - 10.6"

probably final

 

 

Haha that can't be final for BWI. I swear for all the complaining about DCA's reporting, BWI's is equally as comical. I live pretty close to the airport and they are always low on totals.

Eased up to just flurries here and it looks like in general the lifting mechanism is dying out. Lots of weakening of the bands now. It was a fun evening though. Let's keep the ball rolling for next weekend. That's the BIG one.

Just now, Steve25 said:

Looks like I'm coming in a loser from this evening stuff. I'm in Baltimore but I've got nothing but the occasional flurries. My total has stood at 4.5 inches. It's looked like the heavy bands have been on my doorstep for hours but just aren't getting here. Does anyone know the last official measurements at BWI?

Not sure but BWI should have been getting really good snow the past 3-4 hours. They should be over 8 and maybe hit double digits.

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Strong wind all of a sudden

Same. That was really odd.

Just now, supernovasky said:

I’m gonna end up with more snow round 2 than round 1.

At this rate, I might, too, as crazy as that sounds.