osfan24

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I’m a smidge over 5”. If we get coastal love and it cranks, I would think 5 more is doable?

Short-range models seem to give us another 2 to maybe 4 inches, but there is more than that shown just to our east in Anne Arundel. Also ratio dependent as well.

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Probably at least 0.5"/hour I'd guess with these rates and flake quality.

That's what I was thinking as well. Just give me another 10 hours or so of this and I'll take my 10 inches and be happy.

Really nice, steady snow falling here right now. Got close to 5 on the ground. Guessing I can make a run at 8 or so depending on the ULL later. Won't likely be me, but I'm guessing someone hits double digits and maybe even tops a foot. 

I know it’s not the most accurate, but Fox 45 just showed their futurecast and it had snow from over both immediate metro areas through at least midnight, which is the last hour they showed.

Weird how it snows forever on all of the NAMs, especially 12k and 3k, and the totals are relatively pedestrian given 30 hours of snow. Must be very light rates much of the time.

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

It should be an interesting 18z, but really it’s probably time to just watch it unfold and enjoy it all. Can’t wait for a hopeful Cowboys victory / Jebwalk in the snow late tonight. 

Yeah I'm really looking forward to a Ravens victory myself. Oh wait.

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

For the qpf queens

That looks a bit better to me, especially with the heaviest qpf tying to push up toward us from the beaches.

2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

RGEM

 

Well that's a major disappointment after posters said RGEM looked better. Looks the same to me. Might even be slightly worse for the north folks.

I know SREF's are kinda worthless around here, but FWIW, BWI mean is now up just over 10 inches. I do notice they tend to follow the most recent NAM run.

Hey guys, the NAM moved the HECS up to tonight!

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3's detailed qpf:

 

Before the blanket stops by and reminds us that it's less than 12z... it's very similar to the euro and right in line with consensus. 

It's also like a mere 30-40 mile bump to get almost everyone south of Baltimore into warning level snow.

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where did snowstorm5921 go?

To get his milk, bread and toilet paper.

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Considering the temps compared to Mar 2018... even less precip will be a much better event beyond just totals. 

Don't forget the sun angle!

Agree with something BobChill said about the mix line coming north in more recent model runs and how that's a positive for our area. You definitely want mixing into Virginia to get the better stuff up our way. Hopefully, that line creeps a bit farther north in the next 24 hours.

Just now, Snowstorm5921 said:

GFS will probably still be warm but definitely a more favorable evolution compared to 6z.

Oh you mean one OP run for more than a week away changed from it's last run? Color me shocked.

I feel like the Canadian models had one really good winter a few years back where it was consistently performing really well, especially the RGEM, and then everyone started giving it a lot more credence and it has failed rather miserably since then, often portraying colder temps and more snow than what actually falls.

20 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Yes I’m such a bad poster but everyone is looking at 0” of snow the last 2 months...not sure why everyone is acting like we’re guaranteed to get slammed going forward.  GFS and Euro are in good agreement of the 20th being a cutter, and why go against persistence?  A PV in central Canada is a bad look for east coast snow, period.  It forces early phases.  Hope it’s wrong but i wouldn’t be surprised to see ensembles shift in that direction if that PV placement is correct.

So now you are counting all of November and early December as our snow season? Ok...…..

The NAM, woof. And I don't mean DT woofing. It snows for three hours LOL.

Ha GEFS totally abandons the coastal idea after being pretty bullish about it and now EPS starts to pick up on the possibility.

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

 

Sweet model. We make fun of the NAM but the GEFS is useless.

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Can't understand the panic from some on these boards. Everything is or has been moving towards an all systems go for 'Lift off' shortly on one of the best setups I can ever recall. And not a short lived one but one that could potentially last for most if not all of winter. A winter, I might add, that could extend well into March. Could we fail? Absolutely, after all luck plays a part in our winters and/or the models could just plain be wrong. But at this point, nothing, and I mean Absolutely Nothing is sending up a red flag in my mind. The potential is on the table for one of our more historic stretches of winter but I guess if some people want to be miserable the whole time worrying about failure and not savoring it, well then that is on them.

I don't get it either. I'm just excited and anxious to get to Jan 20 and start tracking and see what happens.

NAM is a big whiff.

Ouch, 6z Euro was a big step back overall, especially in VA. GEFS has been so consistent but I still wonder if it's being skewed by big hits.

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Good call. This panel is money and explains why the gefs had so many juicy solutions

Wow if that panel is true. Talk about a totally different storm.

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Quite possible. If the 18z gefs qpf mean verifies this place will be off the chain happy. Vast majority of the gefs members are better than the op. Many by a good margin too 

And then if you play with ratios a little bit...……..