osfan24

It's not a disaster because it's December, but it IS disappointing to have temps so much colder than average in the wettest year ever and have nothing to show for it, especially when there was a lot of hype in November about the early December pattern. 

22 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

I JUST got home at 8, 1.5 hours for a normal 10 minute drive. This is just INCREDIBLE! I have 20.5 inches of snow on the day, 20 on the snowboard from 7 am (6:30)reading. It is STILL snowing but letting up. This is an epic fail on NWS, my forecast was 3-5 at 5, upped to 6-10 just before I left for work.

That's crazy. January 25, 2000 is the last time I can remember getting hit by a big surprise snowstorm. There's been some smaller to moderate events but nothing that big. What a great surprise!

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

We will get ours.  I’m not worried. Well unless I’m saying this in mid March. 

Not all that worried, though hate wasting opportunities. More just in awe of how a storm, especially this early in the year, loaded with moisture doesn't want to climb at all. 

Amazing watching that huge slug of moisture look like it's already hitting a brick wall across the south.

4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

3k nam at hr 27...

Wow, it would not take much over the next 24 hours to put Nova and even DC into some good snow. Still probably not much north of that, but maybe some flakes or light snow.

PSU nailed this. We had those few days where the heaviest axis shifted south instead of staying put, and now the expected north trend isn't likely to be enough to put us in the game. DC and south it could make a difference though, in some cases a big difference. Hope it pans out for all of you.

I give all of you credit for still analyzing the storm. If it were still Wednesday, I'd have a little hope.

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least. 

Not the same kind of storm or setup, but this reminds me of the one last year that was starting way down in like Miami and we tried to will west. In the end, it did keep trending a little more west and I think it slammed coastal areas but we got nada. This feels similar. Continues small ticks north, but only just enough to bring in the cirrus.

The GFS snowfall map also has more of a east-west orientation than more southwest-northeast, which I think just shows how much the confluence is really pressing down. Not a good sign.

Maybe a suggestion that people in Southern VA don't talk about how great things look in a forum dominated by people living between DC and MD-DE line when a model run doesn't even get precip into any part of MD. I don't remember this being an issue in previous years but it's been ridiculous with this storm. I'll see a post about how great the run looks and then go and look for myself and wonder what people are looking at.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We needed the 50/50 and that lobe rotating around to trend weaker/north and it trended stronger/south. That simple.  Ironically given the improvements in other areas had that situation simply stayed the same as it looked 72 hours ago we might be in the game now... the storm has pretty much stayed where it was despite the issues up there because of a stronger stj wave and the typical correction towards a healthier precip shield on the north side.  But those changes cant save us because the confluence keeps trending south every run.  

It is ironic how we thought that area to our north was so problematic a few days ago, but had we just kept that look combined with the other improvements, we would have been in solid shape.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Slightly BUT... the problems are whats going on to the northeast... its still trending worse.  Ignore everything else and just look to our northeast...and look at the trend the last 72 hours... 

Man, what's going on to our northeast is a disaster that just keeps getting worse and worse.

It's inching north, but at this rate, it would take until December 15th for it to get any good stuff up to us. We don't have that much time.

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Still hope for the 95 corridor (Dc - BAL) I would really like to see those 2 pieces of energy in Canada retreat north or delay on 0z tonight or we may be hoping for flurries on Monday. 

 

Suppresion in early DECEMBER? Son of a ....

Yeah storms this early in the year seem to always want to push north. Crazy this one is going to stay so far south. The good news is it's December 6 and the pattern looks loaded for the winter.

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This is one of those times where I am not confused about this situation.  The storm is a tennis ball and the confluence is a brick wall.  The storm needs to be a bowling ball and the brick wall needs to be a cardboard wall.  

Yeah if the 0z suite tonight doesn't trend back north with the storm, I'm starting to think it's option 2 or nothing for us. I think option 1 would be pretty hard to come by at that point.

You have to wonder if the other models are leading the way now trying to get to solution number two and the GFS brothers are playing catch-up.

Sorry folks, my bad. It was the 18z run from yesterday. I see that it's still stuck on 144. Don't know why they can't just get it to run in a timely manner.

Anyway, feel free to beat me with a stick until we get some more positive news on this storm.

FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run.

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

It was still snowing over us at 144 too

I am irrationally angry it won't get out to 150 so I can see the additional inch we get.

26 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

A 30" bomb in early Dec would be historic on many counts. But, I'm trying to understand options 1 and 2  option 1 brings the precip in from Ky and develops a secondary low off the coast, right?  And Option 2 is a phase of the N and S jet streams which would bring a bigger amount of snow up the coast, right?  Don't we do very well with a phase?  I'm trying to understand why that is a problematic solution.  Do we chance the D.C. Snow hole in that situation?  

Thank you all for insights.  While the roller coaster ride is fun, I wish it could be a little easier.  

 

A phase is great if the timing and location is right. Otherwise, it can be a swing and a miss. A lot of our misses and Boston hits are late-phasers.

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

As easy as that all sounds, of course this is the MA and we're looking like a transition to the second scenario could be coming to the table. Interesting that psu pointed out in 09 we did something similar, and we do know how that one turned out. 

However, I'm with you. I'd much prefer the FV route. It just seems like wherever this thing goes, big numbers are being thrown out every run on QPF and snow output. 

If we can get a December 2009 scenario, I'm sure that would be more than fine with all of us. The Euro was upgraded since then and it isn't quite as reliable as it used to be for our weather, so that's a bit of a concern to me.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i like the FV3 way...less complicated. Just get the NS out of the way and let us have our wet 2-3 feet

Yeah this is what I'd rather see, too. FV3 is perfect right now. Heaviest axis just a tiny bit south of us. You know that would end up a bit farther north, and we get buried with 18-24.

I like that there are now two ways this can work and we can get a big storm, but I don't like how it complicates things and that we could end up with an in-between solution and miss out entirely.

Seems to me we have the CMC, Ukie and Euro on one side and the FV3 and GFS on the other at the moment, at least in terms of evolution.

Just have the new and improved GFS do the usual small north adjustment from here till the storm comes and that would be very nice.