osfan24
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Everything posted by osfan24
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Would have to see temp panels but really surprise it starts as rain for a bunch of us. The low is tucked in more than last run, but it's still off the coast. That's a fine position for us.
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Unfortunately, it really doesn't matter if the low placement is coming up through NC and VA and rolling toward the mouth of the bay. That's too close. It needs to be around or off Hatteras and then off OCMD. It seems models are trending toward bringing it over land and due north toward us. That's going to drive in tons of warm air and it will be game, set, match.
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If Winchester mixes, I'm building an ark.
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Might be out by Bermuda by tomorrow's 12z.
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Ha, the temps looked much better on the NAM, and then the simulated radar was a dumpster fire. Didn't really seem to line up.
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Not based on that above snowfall map. Woof.
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I keep hoping we see the Euro back off these NW pushes and get closer to the GFS solution. It will really make a huge difference for us. I've seen my totals around 16 inches on some runs with bigger totals not all that far NW of me but then closer to 8 on others with much smaller totals not that far to my SE.
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Surprised we haven't seen the Euro move to a less amped solution yet. Maybe this thing will be more amped and it will have lead the way on this one.
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I know it's December, but how is there is a fresh cold air mass with a fairly strong high and those low locations and a concern of mix or rain still and surface temps above freezing? Those low locations are perfect.
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I get that, but with such huge totals being shown on many models not that far away and within striking distance, this scenario would be a bit disappointing. I guess it's all about expectations. Had this not been showing such big potential for days on end with big totals hanging around, 6-10 or whatever would sound amazing for December. But that run almost cut my recent GFS run totals in half.
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Not sure why people liked that run. Maybe low position was better, but it wasn't noticeably colder and it drastically cut qpf everywhere. No bueno. Maybe just a blip.
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Just noise probably, but Euro seemed like the slightest step back from 12z. Still trying to figure out where the deform band goes and the 32 line still bounces west of 95 for a time.
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2-6 is the shad of blue that runs just west of DC and through Baltimore. I think the next shade is 1-2 and the lightest shade is a dusting.
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Not sure about VA, but in MD, it's basically I-95.
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They are the best. You can make the colors whatever amounts you want.
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No idea if it will be cold enough for some of you but good luck! Looks like if you get the cold, it could be really fun with some great rates!
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Not great if you want the boom factor closer to metro areas. Not really any huge hits in there. Weird.
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This seems like a pretty big step back if I'm remember the prior couple of runs correctly. Clearly, ensembles do not agree with op, but would have to see individual low placements to see if we have a few tucked way inside skewing things.
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Ha, mostly happy. It crushes you and given the fact it's probably too amped and a blend of the Euro/GFS is best, you are probably getting somewhere close to two feet, maybe more.
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Yeah, I feel like almost every major coastal storm we have, temps are often much colder when the storm hits than modeled, but I could be wrong. That was a great run. Just the smallest southeast adjustments over the next few runs puts the immediate metro areas in the boom zone.
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LOL, yeah I'm going to hope for the GEM thermals combined with a GFS track and speed and we get obliterated.
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Going to take a wild guess the Euro is not going to be great given the Canadian and especially UKMET runs.
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NAM appears to come due north out of SC. I don't think I will lose sleep over that right now.
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I'm hoping my new location is far enough west to get into that deathband. I think I might be just a smidge too far east, but it's going to be fun seeing what this area is like in marginal events and what difference, if any, it makes. I obviously know it's not a Hoffman/Mappy type location.
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Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north?
