osfan24

They are the best. You can make the colors whatever amounts you want.

No idea if it will be cold enough for some of you but good luck! Looks like if you get the cold, it could be really fun with some great rates!

Not great if you want the boom factor closer to metro areas. Not really any huge hits in there. Weird.

This seems like a pretty big step back if I'm remember the prior couple of runs correctly. Clearly, ensembles do not agree with op, but would have to see individual low placements to see if we have a few tucked way inside skewing things.

Ha, mostly happy. It crushes you and given the fact it's probably too amped and a blend of the Euro/GFS is best, you are probably getting somewhere close to two feet, maybe more.

Yeah, I feel like almost every major coastal storm we have, temps are often much colder when the storm hits than modeled, but I could be wrong. That was a great run. Just the smallest southeast adjustments over the next few runs puts the immediate metro areas in the boom zone.

LOL, yeah I'm going to hope for the GEM thermals combined with a GFS track and speed and we get obliterated.

Going to take a wild guess the Euro is not going to be great given the Canadian and especially UKMET runs.

NAM appears to come due north out of SC. I don't think I will lose sleep over that right now.

I'm hoping my new location is far enough west to get into that deathband. I think I might be just a smidge too far east, but it's going to be fun seeing what this area is like in marginal events and what difference, if any, it makes. I obviously know it's not a Hoffman/Mappy type location.

Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north?

Now we are talking. Looks great!

2016

Seems like Euro cut qpf quite a bit from 12z?

This looks fine to me. It actually seems bullish at this range with Baltimore in the 6-12 and DC possibly in it or very close to it as well.

BTW, shouldn't we start a separate thread for this storm? Even if it does come way west, Winchester/Hagerstown, etc should be in for significant winter weather one way or the other.

This sounds nice and all, but when rain/snow line is hanging around and there is 2+ inches of qpf on the Euro, I want the big dog. They only come around so often.

Who is arguing that the cities and east is where the biggest snows will be with this storm? No one has said that. It's pretty clear this is a west of 95 storm. It's just a matter of how far west, and if the cities are able to be on the eastern edge of the big snows. No one thinks Annapolis is getting more than Mount Airy.

Unless it's the Euro.

Maybe, but more than anything, a low coming west of OC, and specifically west of the bay, is what screwed us on that run. That's going to screw us anytime. Well, maybe not you, but certainly the metros.

Wow, a few of those members are really skewing things. Most of those lows are in fantastic locations.

Yep, gotta just hope that's a drunk happy hour run. Needs to be off OCMD. That position will make most get out the canoe.

Doesn't look that bad. Tons of lows out over the ocean. There are some over land for sure, but some of those to the west of the bay seem very unlikely, just like the few that are way out in the Atlantic. Seems like this likely ends up somewhere from Salisbury to a ways off OCMD.

Mixing is obviously always a concern, and I'll be interested to see how my move from Southeast Elkridge to the far western portion of Ellicott City makes an impact. However, I didn't mix even in my old location in December 2009, the two February 2010 storms or the January 2016 storm. I mixed back in 2003 in College Park, and 1996 in the Baltimore area. Obviously, December mixing is more of a concern than later in the winter given climo, but I won't start getting concerned until Monday if the mixing is still showing up. We just don't get many storms around here, especially coastals, where we get around a foot or so of snow. Certainly nothing in recent memory that I can remember. It's either a mauling of around two feet, give or take, or not much. I guess February 2014 and January 2011 could fit the bill sorta/kinda.

We toss. Imagine getting a foot or slightly less while NYC and Boston are digging out of three feet. Doubt it goes down like that. I can't think of many actual big storms where we got significant snow here but then it crushed NYC and Boston. Most of the time when they get big storms, we either get it or it's a swing and miss here because it's just too far east of us.