jbenedet

yea I agree this window is interesting. But I’m seeing more tropical than stc interest this time. For one you can see it in the short term forecasts—weather in Easter CONUS more akin to late summer than early fall. Dews and 80’s are back; the tapestry has shifted to summer. Currently very low odds, but a few members of the GEFS show Phillipe with a much later recurve and interacting with the deep CONUS trough later week. Phillip is currently far south and weak enough to miss the early recurve altogether, and continue along the easterlies.

Fascinating if nothing else. This is the remnants of Ophelia. Not sure if it will be captured by the NHC as such; but the surface low is clearly associated with it across guidance. Very weak signature, as modeled, but upside potential is if the surface vort stays more robust; could spin something up a lot faster than current guidance consensus.

Was* It’s transitioning as we write.

Not sure why so little interest in this. Convection now wrapping over the CoC. Very interesting 12 hours in play.

Lee weakens rapidly in the gulf of Maine; every piece of guidance shows it. This is very run of the mill for you guys up there, especially given how frequently you see sig Nor’ Easter’s.

Mid Summer heights over the Western Atlantic; Mid Fall heights over the central CONUS.

The 12z GFS looked a lot like yesterday’s 12z euro. The key difference was the second shortwave phased over the central CONUS on yesterday’s 12z Euro, and therefore was significantly deeper than the 12z GFS. The 12z GFS has the same players but doesn’t phase; more progressive. Tons of uncertainty with that last feature. Though the teleconnections, after day 5, favor amped—as usual— timing is everything

Finally will get our desired long wave winter pattern.... in late July...

Indeed. No joke. Vatican is in the plans.

Sweet. Just in time for my trip. Leaving this evening from Logan. The beaches at amalfi coast will be a real win with SST's right around 80. But Rome, and Florence ooof. Torch. Lake Como should be great with the microclimate of the 70F lake. I'm taking it that the destinations near water will be wins, while everything else a big loss. The 100+ readings are that much more remarkable given it's a peninsula with non-tropical SST's. I guess it will be cool(ish) to experience the all-time records...

I wish I'd see those around here. Great way to keep mosquito populations in check. And they're cute little critters.

Weekend looks like a washout for most. sunrise will probably bring some optimism on both sat and Sunday but that will quickly fade as day time heating kicks in and lapse rates steepen. And where the rain and clouds are less persistent, further south and east: rain, then the sun will poke and subsequently fill in with next downpour or —at best—heavy cloud cover. Too much UL divergence over our heads in met summer. Theres also a meso 300 mb jet streak along the cape and islands so that might be what’s triggering the euro with higher qpf amounts down that way. Prepare accordingly.

It’s obviously too far out for details but there’s been pretty remarkable consistency across the GEFS and EPS for much worse weather and a sig disturbance centered around the mid Atlantic, coinciding with Friday to Sunday window. And so, likewise, for our subforum—>odds currently favor much better weather north, especially relative to climo. Looking around, observationally, the persistent exceptional dryness, portends a “clash of air masses”, fueling baroclinicty, if you will, as we head into unofficial summer. This makes me believe a subtropical disturbance type outcome as advertised on the 6z GFS has greater plausibility than we normally can assign this far out. It could still flip, but odds are high enough in the mid Atlantic that I’m about pull the trigger on cancelling a trip to eastern Long Island and instead enjoy the long weekend around here with some day trips into Maine.

It’s a perfect afternoon. CoC Full leaf out this weekend.

Decent day on tap. 60 in view.

We 60 yesterday; we 70 today. Take ‘em up. Classic best weather preceding the worst of weather. The anomalous surface high responsible for it all.

DAW 59 and partly cloudy as of 12:50. Couple more hours of heating to go. Best day in a while. Low bar. Sad but true.

Selling the globals here today. I believe we 60 and sun in SE NH outside of 95. A small victory but it’s all we got.

As “decent” as you get around here for the calendar. Occasional break of sun but mostly mid level overcast. 54 for a high will probably do it. Couple degrees BN. Light wind. Sweatshirt is good enough for walking the dog. Looking forward to some heat and humidity. Everything looks tired of the dryness.

The back door presses to the northern mid Atlantic tonight, and then recedes back towards CNE by tomorrow morning. I’m very skeptical of the latter part— the teles and seasonality argue for a “best in Maine” setup on Saturday. It’s a pretty classic setup for miserable weather in coastal northern mid Atlantic. I think the door presses South all day today then stalls somewhere around LI tonight and remains there most of Saturday. Saturday has a much better chance of being a shit day to the northern Jersey shore than 70. With that I still think Saturday turns out “decent” up here, but we are definitely running out of time, guidance wise.

Usually coastal front here means shit weather through June 1st. But this is San Fran this afternoon. Pretty perfect analogy given how torched the atmosphere is just above the surface on up, with very cold SST’s. Nearby Portland Maine can attain this on the regular but not until late June. 70 with a light to moderate breeze and full sun. Fantastic. You guys can keep the record heat.

DAW will finish near euro's numbers. Beautiful out.

Temp is about to rip here. South wind fanning now. 30 min we clear out.

Morning temps have literally nothing to do with the high temps in this. ISR - it's a high order exponential function today. Either you clear out or you don't. 35 or 45 will still translate to 70ish because of what's just above our heads. Temps below consensus in the morning and then catching up and exceeding guidance in the afternoon is exactly what you'd expect given the known guidance biases in both directions. If most in SNE are still socked in by 12, then the warm breakout is a bust. But latest satellite already shows the dank eroding, broadly, so that's still the bad bet.

For those with snow still on the ground - flip a coin?. But for the rest of us, I’ll take the odds that this is our warmest day since October.