jbenedet

That’s a seasonably cold and dry look. If clippers are your thing, get excited on that run. My earlier point was just that: when the cold arrives big storms aren’t nearby. Maybe we get lucky, but that’s been the general theme since November.

This is why I'm going ratter for SNE. This op run WILL change but it illustrates how misleading the H5 longwave pattern can be (especially on those weeklies). Even with -NAO, no problem for pacific Jet stemming from tropical pacific to cook the northeast.

Man if that's the case how are you expecting above average snowfall for the season. TOUGH odds. Jan and February have the toughest comps.

That's part of it, but the big piece I'm looking at is if the heavy precip stays out of canada - no man pack develops to our north/west, which portends risk of an earlier end to winter; i.e. take down March/April expectations.

What kinda sucks about this too is that a) not our cold source regions b) this snow melts within day or two of falling, even in Jan. It doesn't reinforce cold. Transient.

the interior SE and mid atlantic have better chances of hooking up with big snows in January; than SNE, I think.

Pattern is improving but from such a terrible point. I'm comfortable going ratter for SNE before first day of winter. Some observations on why: 1) Generally: Northern stream is traversing our region when big storms are not nearby. Said differently, snow potential is highest for small disturbances, rain potential is highest for strong disturbances. N to slightly BN happening mostly with dry conditions. AN conditions happening mostly with wet conditions. 2) Generally: The Pacific jet is producing our big storms; and even with -NAO in place, and blocking, sig El Nino conditions are sufficient to overwhelm confluence and the BL with p-type/accumulation issues. Blocking won't flee it will, "strangely" erode. 3) Snow-cover near all time lows by Jan 1; this includes our key cold source regions in Southern Canada.

Spotted in Newmarket today.

How do you guys define a ratter? Serious question.

Looks like a mesocyclone moving over SE MA.

Kinda nuts you guys in SE MA are achieving those winds without the convection.

Don’t think so Tip. It’s a valid point but they already managed 31 sustained; 59 gust, this morning 55/54 currently; gulf of Maine be damned.

Event not at all special in terms of the synoptic gradient; kind of a once-yr event on that front. It’s the extreme surface warmth that’s allowing efficient mixing that set this one apart from no big deal. More like a one in five/10. Would have had that one in 10 year “feel”, for sure, if leaves weren’t down.

Enjoy! But please observe safely; i.e, stay off the road!

Gonna rip big time when this front makes it to PWM.

Legit TS conditions at BOS last hour. 39 sustained 53gust. temp 60/58. nice.

Cooked. Have to go west of Detroit to find a dew at/below freezing.

Mount Washington 37/37 with 89 mph sustained. Snowpack in north country getting obliterated.

Storm bottoms out around Burlington VT; 978. 1047 high south of Greenland. PWM positioned between those points, with ESE facing.

I believe PWM gonna get this the worst

Very lucky this happening with leaves down. Otherwise would be trees down all over already and we’re only 1/3 way through this.

Sun is out; filtered sun at Gillette and already 50F.

Bruins game today; pats game tomorrow. Sweatshirts only. We take.

We 50’s AWT

I can see that vis-a-vis 2015-2016. Super El Niños send the +p anomalies (nov/dec) into Southern Canada, and it’s still cold enough to snow—this in turn produces an early rock solid pack in our cold source regions. I believe that helped us out January-March 2016 as pattern shifted more favorable, but generally, not great. Instead, this season, with Pacific being tame, Canada has been dry and most of the precip south….No pack build up. I’m definitely less optimistic for cold/snow than 2015-2016 from this point on.