Not saying your wrong at all but I would say if the cold push isn't as strong then we could see it trend north.
I know you know this but the cold push always seems weaker than modeled but we're getting kind of late in the game now for that.
My guess is it doesn't trend apprcreiably north to effect areas from DC north but who knows.
Looking at the 24 hr precip panels you can see the second wave of precip come up into the area. Not sure how pronounced the vort would be on the mean from a week out. Don't know if it's snow but there's definitely 2 shots of precip.
That's awesome. Makes me want to travel to see snow. I would consider western Maryland area like deep creek or close to there but even out there has been awful so far.
Gefs shows normal to below normal 850s and 2m temps with some waves running the boundary starting around the 3rd or 4th.
Just talking in general at this range but there definitely seems to be a window of opportunity the first half of January.
Hopefully we get several chances as it usually takes many tries for us to score 1.
00z GEFS shows some potential beginning around the January 2nd.
The mean has a low traversing the south and off the coast of the Carolinas with maybe some cold enough air around by that point.
Unfortunately I agree. With the persistent pattern out west I think it's going to be pretty ugly for snow lovers.
Just got to hope for some windows of opportunity and luck.
I like the snow on top of snow the gfs has for Christmas and then 2 days later.
We do snow on top of snow so we'll around these parts lol.
In all seriousness though the gfs seems to be shifting the storm track south with the blocking setting up.
Nice to see some chances showing up in the 8 to 10 day range.
I believe the gfs was showing a 3 or 4 day event with insane snow totals.
I don't think it got inside of 5 days though on the models, but it was on there for several days out in fantasy Land if I remember correctly.