I don't think the north trend is weenie fallacy lol. We've seen southern VA/NC hits a week out turn into hits for our area many of times over the years. Ussually there's incremental shifts north the last 48 hours.
I can't remember 1 time when it looked like a Pittsburgh hit 4 days out that ended up trending into a hit for us.
I remember plenty of central VA hits 4 days out that turned into PSU land bullseye at game time.