Chris78
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Everything posted by Chris78
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Can't wait to see @psuhoffman posts his surprise 8" snow later today of his Winter Wonderland with kids frolicking in the snow and Angels singing. Good Luck everyone.
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Snow just started at the M/D line in Smithsburg, MD
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Light snow in Smithsburg just to the west of the Catoctins. 32 currently.
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Has areas to the west and north that's starting as sleet/freezing going over to Snow late morning and into the afternoon hours as heavier precip moves in. Before ending as a mix. Hopefully it has a clue.
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Euro much better for western areas
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Lol. 15" in the Catoctins. Everyone should road trip there.
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Down to 24 here in Smithsburg.
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Down to 30 currently in the Catoctins. Definitely see bottoming out in the low 20s before rising late tonight. I bet they get shallacked tomorrow above 1200 ft I'm in Smithsburg at about 750 ft
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Truth There's a difference between honest assessment and purposely getting people riled up
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Can't argue with that lol
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He may be right but he likes to do drive by trolls. Ussually pops in when things look bleak.
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We need the moisture to come in hot and heavy. If that happens I can see our area getting 4 to 8. Basically we need the 1" + QPF totals that some models are showing
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Where's the moisture? There's no thump for western areas. Hagerstown is down to .40 lol. If there was a heavy thump western areas would of been alot better.
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The euro is worse than that for you and me. It's ugly for us
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I think something else to consider is that snow is an anomaly in our area. Alot has to go right for us to get snow. As time get close to the actual event models have more/better data and we bleed the wrong way. Also a common model error is height fields being to far south as you go out in time. It's gotten better over the years but it's still a problem
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I think the Euros superior resolution really shows in marginal events. Euro is better than any other weather model in the world. It's not always right but when it's persistent on a certain outcome ussually other models trend towards it.
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Pretty similar. Just Cut back on precip. The gfs has done that off and on the last couple of days. 1.5 qpf then it will have a run if .75.
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18z definitely tightened up the goal posts. Are we at the end of the ensembles being useful for this event?
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I do think heavier the thump the better off we will be. It's going to be relatively dry so hopefully we can get a decent amount of evaporation cooling.
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Take a look at the MA thread. Psu posted the Low track from the 18z euro. It's a perfect track rainstorm for Balt/ Wash. Just need the gfs temps leading in and we'd be good
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Perfect track rainstorm lol
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I hope your right. I worry its the Euros superior resolution that allowing it to see the temp issues for our area.
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It's slipping away for you and I it seems. Euro just keeps moving further NW every 6 hours. Need it to stop.
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I don't have access to the off run euros. Can you post the 850s for the Gfs and Euro? How big of a spread is it?
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Obviously updated data helps accuracy. I didn't realize that over land vs over ocean makes that big of a difference with technology these days...
