I'm going to move this to Banter but I've seen this scenario slide south of my yard plenty of times during the last 5 years or so.
Ji is a little further south than me but I'm much more worried about suppression for Northern MD than being to amped.
I don't think we're out of the woods yet.
Now DC south should be feeling pretty confident.
Here's to hoping we all get shallacked with 1' to 2' with temps in the teens.
Hopefully that stops. The last 2 runs have actually cut back. It's not bad but I don't want it trending any further south.
Edit: My bad. I was actually looking at the EuroAI not it's ensembles but still need it to stop the south shift..
After I looked at the 00z euro and 6z gfs I thought the same thing.
Hopefully we can cash in.
If not we're waiting till the cold relaxes, which probably puts us into the beginning of February lol.
I know what your saying. Our sensible weather is very different between the 2 models but in the grand scheme there really pretty close overall. Both have a significant Winter storm in the east in the day 8 - 10 time frame.
Most of this snow mean is from next Friday through Monday. About 3".
I don't have the individual members but the mean continues to have a nice slug of moisture through the Tennessee Valley.
Definitely a reason to be cautiously optimistic for next weekend.
Only took 300 hours but it finally gets us.
Although overall the run is colder and there's some close calls prior to this.
This combined with the ensembles in this time frame I think should give some optimism.
It's never easy for snow in these parts lol.