ILSNOW

Southward bound 0z GEFS

2nd consecutive storm where RAP and HRRR are my only hope we all know how this will turnout with a solid 1-2 inches in Lake and McHenry county

18z Euro @ 24 hours

worst model followed by GFS and NAM!!!! And we will have a juiced run of the HRRR as well.

Has the RAP ever verified more than an hour out.

21z RAP is wet and wild and has 0% chance of verifying with 3 inch of precip in Chicago. It is smoking what the GFS and NAM were smoking.

and so it begins 18z GEFS

almost time for the 18z GFS to give up the ghost and get inline

yes that and the HRRR!!!!

Question are these Kuchera ratio on pivotal a middle ground approach for determining snowfall or is it meaningless?

For the Chicago people assuming Euro doesnt budge do they put a watch out for area from Chicago north and west where the Euro is showing nothing? Tough spot to be in hope Ricky drops in.

GFS precip for downtown Chicago 0z --2.2 6z-- 2.1 12z--1.9 bigger changes for Northbrook 0z--2.3 6z--1.7 12z--1.3

agree but would be happy this locally as I am sure u would be

ok but is not possible that we end up with more of a GFS/NAM solution then a foreign solution.

It feels like it has been a long time since we had a storm strengthening as it entered our area and we have become conditioned to expect a weakening POS every time. Maybe this is the time we reverse that and the storm will be GFS/NAM like. It is possible that the Euro and its foreign buddies could be wrong this time. Yes the 6z GFS is south/drier but i will happily take my 10 and run. People mentioning the lackluster look of the plumes well for GHDIII they were showing me getting 12-18 and I got 3. Here's to hoping that the GFS/NAM hold steady or improve from their 6z runs

6z GEFS did come south and drier and we have lost the 6z ICON. Hoping the that GEOS magnet pulls this storm our way.

Look at this precip map has to be overdone but by how much

Chicago NWS prolly wait to afternoon package to put up watches if needed.

So McHenrySnow will get between 0-25 inches!!!

and to back up the GFS the 0z ICON bumped north as well.