The Ole Bucket

Under the radar, I think, is that Sterling now a little more aggressive on snow totals. Back to where we were prolly 36 hours ago. Ice prospects definitely declining.

OK now main road in Cville has caved. But still plenty passable.

4 minutes ago, Dendrimer77 said:

I live north of you up near Hollymead. Roads are starting to cave here....how about down there?

Nope. Main drag is just wet.

Definitely would call it mod snow now. Actually cooled a tad and back to 19F in my part of Cville. Sidewalks and road shoulders all covered.

1 minute ago, Herb@MAWS said:

I have (perhaps too) high expectations for the WAA thump. 

You're not alone. Many cases where high expectations for the thump are left unmet.

I live on a main road in Cville so my chief focus through the midday will be when the road caves.

They pretreated the ever-loving-hell out of the main arteries. And the 5th Street Station (large strip mall) parking lot this morning was filled with linemen and their trucks ready to deploy for any power outages. Must have been 30 trucks there.

Just now, stormtracker said:

But what about the snow?

Precip and wind picking up. Temp up to 20F. So much for snowing while in the teens. But it's gonna get interesting out there quick!

It won't last long but snowing at 19F is decidedly unusual for Charlottesville.

First flakes confirmed in downtown Charlottesville

2 hours ago, TSG said:

Just ran to the store and it is COLD out there

17/1 in Charlottesville

Can confirm it is cold. Midwest cold.

I love it.

But within reason. I will enjoy the upcoming icebox even if we don't have a pretty white landscape to go with it. But what I appreciate about the Mid-Atlantic is that you get these brief spells of deep winter... it doesn't last foreeeevvvverrr like it does in MN or WI.

TBH the best part of the evolving forecast from Sterling and local mets is to cut down on the ice.

Central VA had people that were without power for a week from the last storm. Could do without that.

17/1 in my neck of Charlottesville. NE wind at 8.

Will be very interesting who wins the battle of the short-term models.

HRRR gives us 7+. NAM gives us basically nothing. I'll be happy with a split decision.

Will also report how it feels later today, headed outside shortly. Might be the coldest its been here, wind chill wise, in several years. Usually when it's in the teens there's no wind at all.

29/4 at CHO

4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

This what you’re looking for?

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

yeah, that one is a pass. couple more runs like that and my journey to cville may get canceled. think I can wait till Sunday morning to make the call.

ice + wind = cya, I'm out. 

I don't doubt that the GFS and Euro are overselling the snow. But there's no way the NAM gets this exactly right.

Local mets are saying 4-8" across the Piedmont.. with a quarter inch of ice. That sounds about right.

lol the NAM gives me half an inch of snow and 8 tenths of ice.

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO 

Am I wrong in thinking that snow totals are overdone in the Piedmont here? I've seen this kind of thing plenty of times in my 11 years in Charlottesville and I have to imagine that a lot more of that liquid is gonna be sleet and FRZ than what the Euro is showing. The Valley and I-81 are gonna be blitzed but I have this feeling that it will be 28-29F at the surface just east of the Blue Ridge but pelting sleet and then pouring freezing rain come midnight...

1 minute ago, Snowfan96 said:

I don’t see it happening with the sfc and H5 low tracks. They will at least change to sleet, if not mix with rain.

You're not quite living up to your name with this stuff!

Just now, nj2va said:

Lol at the idea that the NAM will get these features right beyond H48.

That's the spirit!

Incidentally, Sterling under the radar has moved I-95 into the medium confidence, medium impact zone. An improvement!

And snowfalls through 7pm 

NAM is always warm, hour 80 and 84 never matter... come on where's the confidence?! 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Who knew the Mayor of Charlottesville was a weather weenie?

Yeah is that you Lloyd?!

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Going to Charlottesville on purpose is, indeed, a mistake.

Charlottesville gonna be another battleground between the precip types. Same as it ever was.

Will at least be a fun one for the obs thread!

The major improvement, as others indicate, is that the 95 gets its snow and then the changeover is short and then dry. With the colder air coming in on the backside, a chance to hang on to snow/icepack.

I really doubt that 15" comes close to verifying in CHO. Huge Ws for I-81