The Ole Bucket

27 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Just saw that Mike Masco video. Loved the line "it's just a matter of if Baltimore and DC are surprised with 6 inches or 10 inches."

This guy is a real meteorologist. On TV.

I suppose the surprise by either of those measurements depends on perspective... and what they're used to.

Expectations are medium/medium rare

Just now, nj2va said:

With all their boom and busts and %, they don't even need to do multiple maps.  They always cover themselves and then call their forecast an A+!

Accuracy: D+
Timeliness: C-
Communication: C-
Overall: A

CWG is having a time:

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1487074417763143690

Pretty cloudy in Charlottesville. 31F.

Brine and salt advisory in effect.

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

 

I see what you are doing here .

Must have been a wrong number

Give us next Saturday and then you could cancel the rest of winter. WSW criteria for absolutely everyone here.

Let's do it.

4 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Are we ready for another heartbreaking chase???

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Bottomed out at 14F in Charlottesville. Almost cold enough for gloves.

Been a pretty wintry January! Love it.

Advisory level or better stuff across all of VA, MD and probably NC. Warning level across all Delaware.

Okay yeah that works.

That's a mighty fine precip shield that starts over us at 78 and still looks sweet at 87

Well if that's not just a peach..

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

bad run for NW/SW crew

The thing is.. the mix line is still *OFFSHORE* with this.

So there's room for this to get further west without screwing anyone in the sub.

That's pretty good.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Agree.  Save the step backs for Friday 12z.

So like..

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Now on to rooting for the 1 in 100 type fluke to happen here!  

Just now, Heisy said:

Not one 6z control post? Can't have that. Just close your eyes and imagine it's 24 hours out 

 

31 inches on the Delmarva and 2.4 for me? Pass.

We are right back to where we were with the 00z suite.

Hope it's just the windshield wiper effect. Lotta time left. But not ideal!

This thread to the GFS:

2 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

This map is why we rebelled against England

CMC:

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It's so close if it can tuck just slightly.. would love some kind of event where everyone goes dry or light rain to snow and never has to worry about mixing.

Location of the low is fantastic but the direction is what keeps this at a lighter event. Needs to go NNE when it hits the Outer Banks, not NE.

Pretty good hit for Delmarva though.

Right off the coast of the Outer Banks at 111...

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I do like how we seem to have plenty of precip now to the left of the slp into the cold sector. The low doesn't need to be right along the coast....decent distance off the coast could actually work out for many of us if this is right. I remember when this first began getting modeled it was bone dry originally to the left of the low. Good signs all around last 18 hrs or so. 

While that would probably cut down on the snow totals IMBY, honestly it would be nice to see the entire sub not have to worry about mixing. Just steer that thing in a little bit more and wrap it up a little tighter... just enough to keep rain off the Delmarva and that would be ideal.

Still plenty of time to pull this thing further back west. Bernie Rayno had a Twitter live this morning where he was pretty confident about this being a hit. Whether it gets as far south as this sub is an open question. Could be NJ north or could come all the way down.

But he was very strong about this not being OTS.