The Ole Bucket

6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I dunno why anyone would like sleet.  It sleets hard and then you have nothing to show for it.  At least freezing rain makes the trees look pretty. 

I like to have power.

Dingleberry pellets?

Incidentally, the roads are passable in Charlottesville but not plowable because it's almost all sleet and it's 27F out there. Just an hour drive away from all those deathbands up there it feels like one of those weird winter storms that hits northern Mississippi or Alabama. Never seen it before.

I think it's pretty clear that, somehow, the NAM is the new king.

Pounding sleet in CHO

Kind of hurts to walk in it

Snow enough to get a coating, maybe an inch out there in Cville. Everything covered up quick. Now a mix between snow and pingers. 27.

54 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HRRR nailed the storm last Thursday in this area FWIW. Was the first thing advertising 4-6". I like having it on our side in the short-range, it's done really well this winter as far as I can recall.

I think it was the only model having CHO even sniffing 5"

And it was money.

16 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I don't know if it is relevant, but last week, I was watching it snow and later sleet at my house for many hours, but the weather apps and radar said rain.  And the other day, it was showing snow on radar, while it was definitely raining.  

We were supposed to get a full day of freezing rain with the last storm and instead it was on-and-off and mixed with far more sleet than forecast or modeled..

Whatever north trend the NAM had seems to have stopped.

26/13 in CHO.

Was actually pretty bitter this morning going into the gym. Wind was up a bit.

One other thing that I'd cheer for that the models are showing... getting at least partially dry slotted after snow/sleet moves through. Please keep the big icing away, thanks.

I know it's at range but I actually think the HRRR is showing something that's... likely? Possible at least? Going to be a lot of flipping and weird pockets of cold/warm air at 700. It just feels like that kind of storm where there will be sleet bombs in some areas while others not far away hang onto to much more snow.

1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Its obviously at range but the HRRR is a weenie run...6" for a lot of us by noon. Hopefully its not just playing catch up

7+ for CHO and about 6" for DC according to Kuchera through 30 on the long range HRRR...

Wait now there are TWO “claws”?

Sterling getting slightly snowier..

Well in fairness this is his opinion of trying to forecast it:

One local met's take on the forecast for CHO anyway.

NAM 3K gives DC like.. 90 minutes of snow before sleet comes in.

Long and short it seems to me that the NAM is trending colder. I think the trajectory of this thing is locked in. All that matters are the 700mb temps.

Wait actually I'm wrong on the juice if you look farther west. There was a kind of a snow hole in WV in prior runs. That's GONE.

I'm not the best at reading the maps, but so far to me the NAM seems slightly less amped and a ever so slightly more south than 12z.

CHO still all sleet verbatim, but I don't buy that.

NAM at 42 is a direct hit for DC.

Look at that EZF jackpot from the Ukie.

Well @NorthArlington101 I think we both know that CHO and other points southwest of NOVA/DC/MD are not gonna get those totals! 

An inch and a half of sleet, a few inches of snow and a trace of ice for CHO says the GFS.

Well at least it will be like 50 a few days later. That's going to be hell to clean up.