I hate that my call of 3-5” for SE Harford was dead-on. No piece of guidance had less than .5, and most were .75+. The WAA was much drier than modeled and forecast, on the order of 50%. I never had faith in the coastal, but even with that, at such a short lead, models were showing some moisture in my ‘hood and down on the upper Eastern Shore. The precipitation was about 30 miles too for NW once it finally was thrown back.
I don’t think a single model got the distribution of the precip in the MA correct. Some more than others obviously, but still. 12z GFS was ~50 miles too far east with the banding that occurred this evening.