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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    GFS showing signs of being a little better, still don't think this is our storm but hoping to see some flakes
  2. HVSnowLover
    Yep timing not that favorable either, precip coming in during the daytime hours on Sunday will allow some warming before precip comes in. Of course last November precip came in the afternoon and we all know what happened but as of now this looks like a less favorable setup for front end snow.
  3. HVSnowLover
    Must be a lot of sleet, those maps often confused snow and sleet. However it would not show that type of accumulation if it was plain rain.
  4. HVSnowLover
    Yea it's definitely colder than the previous run, still not close for the metro area but definitely ticked SE with everything
  5. HVSnowLover
    Agree I think basically everyone will start as snow or snow/sleet from this, I don't really expect much if any accumulation near the coast but it will be nice to see the first flakes beyond flurries of the season for many. I think once you get into the HV then it's much more tricky in terms of this being a snow to rain event or a significant winter storm depending on the details.
  6. HVSnowLover
    While this is true, this isn't the main reason why this storm won't produce for NYC. We've seen a few November storms that have hit hard even down to NYC, however this is not a pure coastal, it's a bad setup for the coast.
  7. HVSnowLover
    The CMC Precip type maps, Euro also looks a little colder
  8. HVSnowLover
    CMC is colder this run, solid icestorm for our interior sections
  9. HVSnowLover
    It seems rare for NYC to ever get a good snow when the primary low is going to Michigan regardless of time of season. If it was mid winter there would probably be more front end frozen precip but beyond that don't think it would change much with this setup.
  10. HVSnowLover
    The primary kills the whole storm on the gfs for basically everyone, even when 850s crash surface still very warm.
  11. HVSnowLover
    I wonder what that is based on?
  12. HVSnowLover
    Euro has been pretty steady showing this as an inland storm at best, GFS is really the only model that made this a big storm for the coast on some runs. Euro has been more consistent than the GFS this year so far. I never really bought the low tracking SE like the GFS was showing a few days ago, you need really intense blocking for that
  13. HVSnowLover
    I can't remember the last time a storm trended well, just like last winter so far every storm trends worse as we get closer to the event. Agree it's 5 days out but it's really a tough setup to expect much snow.
  14. HVSnowLover
    Trends overnight are ugly, primary holds on longer. Agree this is looking like another rainstorm.
  15. HVSnowLover
    The Euro has been more consistent so I'd say this favors the interior but is still hard to call, also the timeframe does keep getting pushed back, seems like mainly a Monday storm now with only light overruning precip on Sunday. Models still have a lot to sort out here.
  16. HVSnowLover
    Too far out but yea the transfer came way south on both the Euro/GFS overnight. However the primary is a cutter in early December so the setup overall would say you'd have to be decently inland to see frozen precip
  17. HVSnowLover
    Precip looks unimpressive on radar and models, seems like just a regular cold front at this point. On the plus side there won't be much rain.
  18. HVSnowLover
    The main miss seemed to be the intensity of the precip, the timing actually went pretty much as planned but the intensity of the front end snow thump was very underestimated.
  19. HVSnowLover
    Agree you could tell by that morning that one was going to overperform. While it was a surprise there were definitely signals before the snow came in that it would overperform and the NWS even raised expected totals before the snow arrived
  20. HVSnowLover
    I actually agree at this point, Low 20s is too cold for November especially without any snow.
  21. HVSnowLover
    Probably because the long range NAM is the only model showing accumulating snow for NYC. I think white rain is possible at the end but thats about it with this one until you get well inland at least at it stands now
  22. HVSnowLover
    Yea and 6 of those came in November so it probably felt worse because only 14 inches for the actual winter season.
  23. HVSnowLover
    Right now it looks like a better setup for our NW zones than today but that could of course change.
  24. HVSnowLover
    GFS ticked NW, now looks in between Euro and CMC. Probably not going to be a storm for the coast but maybe some flakes at the end.
  25. HVSnowLover
    A stronger consolidated low would probably track more NW though. I think this may be more interesting than today but I still don't think a major snow event to the coast, I would sign up for what the GFS/CMC are showing in a heartbeat though for November.
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