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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    The 10:1 maps are deceptive for the coast. Won't be 10:1 ratios especially during periods of lighter precip
  2. HVSnowLover
    35 straight hours of precip on the CMC, a lot of it light but definitely long duration.
  3. HVSnowLover
    Seems like it's been the coldest model each run
  4. HVSnowLover
    It's not, it's a real possibility but its probably more going to be heavy mood flakes than a sustained snowstorm on Monday.
  5. HVSnowLover
    Yep basically This never was and isn't a big storm for the immediate metro area. Be happy if Monday surprises but it's December 1st with a primary going to the lakes, its great to see any frozen precip.
  6. HVSnowLover
    Thanks for the explanation, I'm not going to rely on the hour 84 NAM for details, we know the potential is there but we know the details for Monday won't be sniffed out until closer to the event. At this point we are not even entirely sure what the initial wave will look like, will it be a thumping of snow or sleet to rain or will it be mainly rain, how far north will the warm air push get etc.
  7. HVSnowLover
    Not a lock but a possibility
  8. HVSnowLover
    This is going to be a brutally hard storm to forecast honestly especially for NYC and points within 50 miles from the city
  9. HVSnowLover
    Yes, this. Everyone keeps making it about climo. It's not so much about climo as much as how long the primary holds on and the track/strength of the secondary
  10. HVSnowLover
    The accumulating snow would actually be more so on the front end than the back end. It shows about 3 hours of heavy snow at the start of the storm for the Metro area.
  11. HVSnowLover
    I think most would be happy just to see the first accumulating snow of the season near the coast, not expecting a big event. I think the 12Z Euro got people thinking it could be bigger for the coast, lets see what the 0Z Euro shows.
  12. HVSnowLover
    CMC is north, front and backend snows for the city and lots of rain
  13. HVSnowLover
    NAM is still out of range GFS has been playing catchup the whole time and the 0Z run was basically the same as 18Z
  14. HVSnowLover
    I'm seeing about 1-2 inches for NYC on the GFS. Either way it's the GFS, it's not the model I would lean on. It's also playing catchup with this storm.
  15. HVSnowLover
    It is mostly rain but hits NYC at the end with the CCB band, I'm not seeing the 10 inches though? GFS will be awful with this storm anyway, it always underestimates the low level cold in CAD scenarios
  16. HVSnowLover
    What he said wasn't that extreme, with the extent of the CAD there will be frozen precip down to the Mason Dixon line and their should be significant wintry precip I80 and North. The 15 inches part who knows but probably will happen somewhere, this is a long duration event.
  17. HVSnowLover
    Upton doesn't seemed that impacted by the latest trends, still predicting a mostly rain event for the city
  18. HVSnowLover
    It will probably tick back north a bit which is why we needed the south trend to be this significant to allow a little breathing room. If Euro is jackpotting NYC now I would expect the city to see at least a few inches.
  19. HVSnowLover
    Even though I'm sure some of that is sleet, this just became very real. Wow
  20. HVSnowLover
    The part that makes this storm tricky is the complexity of all the pieces. I think the extent of the WAA from the primary will be a tricky forecast. The forecast is tricker for the city than it appears because while i expect lots of rain there is both potential for the front end to hit like a wall or the back end CCB to hit like a wall, so the city could get anywhere from no accumulation to several inches depending on those two aspects of the storm which will both be hard to predict until real time.
  21. HVSnowLover
    Would like to see the Euro come south to really feel like this storm is in business (it still has accumulating snow only north of the city) however I like the trends a lot. If nothing else the timing of the precip on the frontend has sped up which means it should definitely start snow or sleet.
  22. HVSnowLover
    CMC is even colder this run, it's probably the outlier at this point but it's pretty to look at.
  23. HVSnowLover
    GFS still a mess but it's slowing getting there toward the other models
  24. HVSnowLover
    There's a lot of sleet so I wouldn't take those snow maps verbatim but I would definitely sign up for that CMC run overall, would be a fun storm.
  25. HVSnowLover
    CMC is south again and colder than 12Z
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