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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    Catskills to up around Albany will be crushed. For the city 1-3, 3-6 for the suburbs, 6-12 Hudson Valley to interior CT Somewhere will get more if they get under good banding
  2. HVSnowLover
    I can't remember ever really seeing a storm like this in terms of the stalling low and the 30+ consecutive hours of precip so that part is a real wildcard. My hunch is if the snow is heavy temps will fall below freezing but if it stays light it will stay above freezing and not accumulate in the city.
  3. HVSnowLover
    GGEM says flurries all day on Monday never really gets any decent snow, unfortunately this is a possible outcome
  4. HVSnowLover
    It's not as warm as people think, outside of the GFS the freezing line is dangling just north of the city on a lot of models. I wouldn't expect snow but sleet or at least mixing with sleet could hang on longer than expected.
  5. HVSnowLover
    This I will agree with, it is warmer than all the other models and is absolutely awful with surface temps in these scenarios.
  6. HVSnowLover
    The overall setup remains the same, the model varation will be due to exactly where the CCB band hits.
  7. HVSnowLover
    Honestly looks about the same as every other GFS run. The models have been pretty consistent now for the past day, this is an interior storm, it will snow on the coast but much accumulation can not be expected.
  8. HVSnowLover
    Well said, agree. There is a reason the watches are up for the places they are up for and nothing for the city. There is high confidence of significant snow in these areas but the city could be 1 inch or could be a miracle but it's so dependent on the randomness of a CCB band.
  9. HVSnowLover
    Weird look on the NAM, 850s having a really hard time clearing the city.
  10. HVSnowLover
    Front end is slower and less impressive however the warm push is less strong this run so it may end up with a good outcome
  11. HVSnowLover
    A few models (CMC, NAM) don't have plain rain making it past Southern Westchester/Immediate CT Coast. They may be too cold but there is a decent chance that places even 30-35 miles from the city can stay mainly frozen with this.
  12. HVSnowLover
    5-7 seems reasonable, should be mostly frozen there but sleet will likely cut down on totals.
  13. HVSnowLover
    Almost nothing this run, long range NAM though in terms of the ULL piece
  14. HVSnowLover
    18Z NAM looks pretty juiced with the front end push
  15. HVSnowLover
    In this case what is the ideal scenario in terms of where want the secondary to get going and be at it's strongest, honestly the secondary has me a bit confused in this particular setup
  16. HVSnowLover
    Yea I'm not saying it will be anything like that event, all I was saying was I wouldn't write off picking up a quick inch or two especially for Northern parts of the city/North Shore of LI, some models are hinting at precip coming in like a wall
  17. HVSnowLover
    It may start as snow if the initial dynamics are strong enough. I'm not saying it's going to be anything like November 2018 but I also wouldn't completely write off that first burst as nothing.
  18. HVSnowLover
    Freezing rain will be confined to well inland.
  19. HVSnowLover
    Unless there there is a sneaky warm layer?
  20. HVSnowLover
    Agree 1-3 seems like the best predictive forecast for the metro area with the caveat that Monday COULD surprise.
  21. HVSnowLover
    Agree there will absolutely without any real doubt be a period between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning where temps go above freezing at all levels and possibly well above freezing (referring to coastal areas)
  22. HVSnowLover
    Agree who gets the banding will really decide the storm.
  23. HVSnowLover
    Euro is NW of yesterdays 12Z run, no surprise. Doesn't look terrible though.
  24. HVSnowLover
    Yea that seems to be the likely outcome here although I think you'll have to be more than 30 to 40 miles to see 1 to 2 feet due to the sleet factor.
  25. HVSnowLover
    With a low hugging the NJ coast I am not surprised by the outcome being depicted
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