HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Yea for NYC to jackpot the cape and Atlantic City and maybe Eastern LI would probably need to at least have some mixing. Don't necessarily need a jackpot but thats the reality.
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Very high ratio snow potential here, upper teens in NYC Saturday night. Depends I guess also how windy it is.
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At least one model looks like it came west tonight. Tomorrow is another day.
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If we go by the 24 hour rule and ignore the wonderful dream of the 12z suite, the gfs actually came decently west from 0Z last night.
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Amazing when it's a an inland track the models can lock in and hold for 5 days but when it's a coastal it always goes like this.
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GFS meh, CMC way east. Not over yet but not great trends.
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The GFS will almost always throw out an odd run and yes it's often on the 6z or 18z cycle. However if 0Z models all trend east then i'd get worried.
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GFS way east but not a reason to freak out yet.
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This storm honestly has way more upside potential than that one did. The models weren't throwing out 2 feet totals with that one.
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Actually about 100 miles west of that would be better for the majority of this subforum lol
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Be careful what we wish for. I'm not going to pretend I am not still hoping for a west trend to bring in the 20+ inch totals but also know that too far west and we mix so it's a delicate line.
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Yea you can see the southwest bend in the precip tilt a lot further south this run, I'd imagine that would bend even further SW if the low bombed out faster.
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Yea probably anywhere from a Catskills jackpot to a Nantucket jackpot is still on the table at this time.
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So that must be why it gave 11 inches to NYC even with a low that far east.
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Agree I like the general a significant coastal storm is possible take at this point. It's hard to not get excited but I know this could trend the other way still.
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Agree, the Euro is probably exactly where you want it 5 days out which is the best snows a little east of NYC knowing storms are more likely to trend west than east.
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Tough forecast for Boston right now, Euro/Ukie camp they get clobbered, CMC/GFS camp they get change to rain.
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I wouldn't worry about verbatim at this point. We have 3 major models now showing a strong low offshore throwing back at least 6 inches of snow to the metro area. Can't ask for a better 12z suite at this point.
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Euro is east of GFS/CMC but west of it's last run.
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Ukie is way east of CMC/GFS
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The CMC has not loaded yet on Pivotal, must be so in awe of what is showing that it froze.
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The ocean is very dynamic and warm. Storms have been overperforming all winter in terms of QPF. A storm like this could easily dump 2 feet in under 24 hours.
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February 2006 was a fast mover. If it bombs out in the right spot could be a HECS for someone on the east coast.
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Honestly being in the jackpot zone with rain just to the SE is not an ideal spot this far out. I would favor the interior at this point but who knows with this winter it could either way.
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If it develops 12-18 hours earlier I think NYC Metro might be bringing out umbrellas but yes I could see why you'd want that up there lol.
