HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Is the 18Z Euro as reliable as other Euro cycles?
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I know no two setups are alike but the storm that gave parts of NYC and LI 9 inches earlier this winter I believe was showing like 1-3 at this range.
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The fact it's on its own.
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Maybe im misreading this but it looks like even the western end of the ensembles are still pretty far east?
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Honestly I'd say somewhere in between.
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The CMC/GFS yesterday had several runs that were at least showing like 6-12 inches, now it's like 6-12 flakes if that.
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I'm looking at it as the 0Z runs tonight to me are the start of the 4th quarter with 0Z Friday being the finish line. The analogy helps me in terms of timeframes to focus on.
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NYC went from a 17-10 halftime lead to a 24-17 deficit at the end of the 3rd quarter. For eastern LI it's more like going from a 24-10 lead to a tied game at the end of the third quarter. I hope the football analogy is ok.
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Of course I'm not too optimistic about this storm but NAM is still sort of out it's prime range although yes what it looks like up to hour 48 is important.
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I did notice the low jumped around which might be a sign the models are still having a bit of a hard time recognizing which will become the dominant low. This happened with our only decent snow of the winter so far too that the western low became the dominant one. We can only hope......
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Acceptance of reality is a good thing I've learned over the years.
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That wasn't how the setup looked at all a day or two ago.
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I'm really believing the it snows where it wants to snow thing. Somehow ACY is probably going to get more snow than NYC out of this.
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Verbatim it's still a warning level snowfall for NYC but the problem is given where all the rest of the guidance is at I'm expecting it to continue trending east. Lets hope not.
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Euro verbatim is still the best case scenario for this storm. The trend is not our friend.
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Yes its been very cold, thats why places to our north have a snowpack even though it's been a dry January. I think it's fine to track storms far out but don't get attached to outcomes. I have to say this one surprised me a bit, this really looked it had the makings of something special and even now I wouldn't get overattached to the model outcomes because it could still change but if it doesn't I mean it is what it is, life goes on.
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Yes or even I think your area has a snowpack off 12 inches of snow this winter lol. The city/coast is so dependent on noreasters and honestly i'd probably prefer the dink and dunks.
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CMC east.
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I would like think out on LI you have a little more time with this, for NYC and def anywhere west of NYC need to see solid changes by 0Z tonight if you want a big storm. Honestly I'm almost fine with a powdery 6 inches or so at this point.
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If Euro is wrong here are we done following it for the winter?
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Agree lol.
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Will it be that windy if the low is halfway out in the Atlantic?
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Looks like we are moving somewhat closer to a consensus of a 6-12 type event in the immediate metro area. KU still possible but would say lower probability, a total whiff is definitely still possible too but also lower probability.
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There is no real trend. None of the models significantly changed tonight from how they were before.
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Not a flake for NYC
