HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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I mean this is seeming more and more like Boston's storm but it doesn't mean NYC can't get hammered too but we are on the nailbiter side of it where as Boston is pretty much locked in.
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Oh sure this storm I'm buying in at this point and following intently, all in, theres enough evidence to buy in at this point.
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Thats why i've worked on establishing rules to not get as caught up in every single run of every model.
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0Z CMC looks pretty good.
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Ugly GFS run.
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If the worst case scenario is the 0Z RGEM we are in decent shape.
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Even the RGEM has a 988 low a little SE of the Benchmark, certainly not way off.
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The model I would take least seriously at this range.
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Not with this storm unless there is a major shift in track.
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I think the likelihood of a full miss OTS is decreasing but certainly still worried about getting fringed.
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Isn't NAM known for being good with KU events?
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You really couldn't ask for a more beautiful look with that track, strength and high.
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Another bomb incoming on the NAM i think
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To me this isn't really a Euro against the world situation. The CMC/GFS are like 50 miles off from bringing very significant snow to the metro area which is nothing at 4 days out.
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The kuchera maps are already showing 30+ inches in the jackpot zone on a lot of runs. I know with the winds the kuchera maps be off a bit.
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Thats really high for an ensemble mean this far out.
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Probably a sign not much changed?
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Looks like some snow Friday from a northern stream disturbance on Friday but probably the coastal snow would begin around midnight.
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No chance is a strong statement this far out but it is very very unlikely.
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Im not really focused on snow totals until earliest tomorrow, for now just focused on track/intensity etc.
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Agree it's about halftime with a 17-10 lead or so for NYC and a bigger lead for LI.
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I agree with people saying the Euro doesn't make a ton of sense. There are certainly outlier storms but it is rare for both Eastern LI and the HV to both get significant snow, however it seems to get there by tracking the low due north as opposed to NE and then closing off stopping WAA. We've already seen one storm do that this winter so it is possible.
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The Euro tracks the low almost due north from hour 96 to 108.
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Not that I think the 12z Euro matters that much in terms of overall outcome but I'd predict it comes in around the same or slightly east. If it somehow did go further west it would be a bit red flag that this may be coming in more west.
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Remember this storm is still 4 days out. I don't know why people are acting like the storm track is edged in stone. This could still trend way better or way worse but the bottomline is their is major upside potential for whoever ends up in the jackpot zone.
