HVSnowLover

I think its interesting that the short range models (RAP, HRRR) have significantly more qpf than the other models. I am not sure if this is normal.

I think people have said the winds would cut ratios which is a reasonable thing but no real wind at the front end of the storm.

Snowing light to moderate but ratios already seem very good as expected, probably close to an inch already.

I have noticed usually the big storms tend to come in early and fast, idk if it means much but that is maybe something to keep an eye on.

Light snow has started and is sticking.

The problem is how much of that is real vs virga? I just looked up Raleigh and it's saying no precip there.

I think the snow in our area is probably still from the northern stream disturbance isn't it?

Im going to trust the professionals here and upton still has 7-10 for NYC. I mean this was never NYC's storm anyway but people are overreacting I think to some small shifts east.

If the storm is flatter it might almost help inland areas if the cut off is less sharp due to less subsidence, of course if it goes too far east then we all get nothing...

Upton actually upped totals slightly for the city so they must be seeing something the models aren't.

If the winds really aren't a big deal this will be extremely high ratio snow from NYC on northwest where everyone will be in the teens.

Final Call won't get too caught up in models and will only slightly tweak thoughts from earlier today/this has a lot of variability Suffolk 12-24 (Isolated 24+ possible) Nassau 10-15 (possibly higher with banding) Brooklyn/Queens/Staten Island 8-12 (possibly higher with banding) Bronx/Mahattan 6-10 (possibly higher with banding) NW of NYC up to 287- 5-8 (possibly higher with banding) 287 to 84- 3-6 (possibly higher with banding) North of 84 West of Hudson (1-3)- possibly higher with ratios North of 84 East of Hudson- 3-6

Are there particular things or locations we'd want to pay attention to get a sense of how this is evolving in real time?

I sort of agree and also disagree. The models all do look around the same but the gradient is so tight both SE and NW of the city that the outcome is still sort of in limbo although certainly 6-9 as upton is forecasting seems like a good call at this point.

Agree totally which is again why I think for NYC you want to see that .50 qpf stay solidly to the NW. You want to be solidly in the snow as opposed to the NW fringe.

I guess its perspective. This was kind of always a run of the mill snowstorm for NYC but we all got excited by the 2 NAM runs (shocking it would be the NAM to excite us lol). If I was in Boston yea I'd be a little worried but honestly someone between Eastern LI and Boston is still getting over 2 feet. I don't think we can take every single model run verbatim.

I mean at the end of the day factoring ratios thats 2 feet vs 18 inches. Suffolk county is getting hammered from this no matter what.

Right but my point was more NYC has a little breathing space. With temps as cold as they are .50 qpf should be easily 6+ so it's comforting that line has pretty much stayed where it is and hasn't trended more SE toward the city.

Thats actually great news for ratios.

Yes I think as someone else pointed out we need that low at or west of Nantuckets longitude near our latitude to have a shot for NYC to get into the really heavy stuff.

As long as the .50 qpf continues to stay up around Rockland county I feel secure this won't be a disaster. We also know there is a good chance their is an unmodeled band on the western end of the precip.

Agree the 18z/0z runs will tell us if its trending east again or this is just overcorrecting from the west trend.

It really backed down everywhere. Even Boston is now closer to one foot.

Euro verbatim is still .77 qpf and higher from the city on east. There is a little wiggle room from a disaster at least.

This is probably not for this thread but to be honest I'd be more excited if it wasn't going to be 55 next Wed. 6 inches will be gone so fast in NYC. But I should learn to enjoy the moment more you are right.