HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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I disagree about the only light showers part, this storm is intense and has a lot of warm moisture with it, it will pour and pour a lot the question is will the pouring freeze on the surface or not
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Agree but with heavy rates I am still not sure the areas in the 28-32 range will see major icing.
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Verbatim it's more like less than an inch for most of the city, the 2 inch line is at the Bronx/Westchester border.
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Not fun following a rainstorm, hopefully they'll be some wintry precip on the ground, if not what a waste of cold
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Northern NYC on NW is all frozen on the NAM. I think the NW Suburbs could get a crushing icestorm. For Bronx, upper Manhattan, Lower Westchester this could be very on the fencxe between nuisance icing and damaging icing if the NAM surface temp depiction is accurate and I usually trust the NAM most with surface temps
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The GFS and the GGEM aren't even close to each other. The models are still pretty far apart but even the most SE/Coldest models are not showing a snowstorm for the coast so thats why I'm saying be realistic, this is at best case a front end dump scenario and the only real question is how much does the surface torch.
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Agree there could be a very sharp cutoff with this in terms of frozen mess vs mainly wet and it may not be very far from the city
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If theres a lot of snow and/or sleet on the ground it would probably lead to possible more icing but I still don't see it being a huge deal at 32
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CMC is very close to a big front end thump for the city
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GFS has some front end snow but has NYC getting into the 50s lol nothing like the 12Z Euro
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Yep, I think you have to get NW of 287 to see damaging ice with this. SE of there it's either snow to rain or snow to freezing rain/rain. The airmass is not crazy cold. The GFS actually isn't terrible, its surface temps are ugly and likely wrong but I'd live with a 2-4/3-5 inch front end dump at this point, thats the best you're getting with this storm
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31-32 in the city would be mainly plain rain maybe a little ice. I think you have to be in the 20s to get real ice accretion.
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It changed to heavy rain but the front end dump was way undermodeled. These scenarios can go either way
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Agree this is not a snowstorm for the coast or near the coast, maybe a front end thump in the best case scenario but the icing threat is starting to look very real especially for anyone away the immediate coast
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Yea it's actually way south, still not a snowstorm for the metro area but way more interesting than 18Z for sure
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CAD stronger low further south, front end thump on this run from the city on NW
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Mini being the key word, looks flatter and colder but not significantly
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Yea GFS is really bad with temps. However it has caved to the other models in terms of a much flatter solution for Friday morning
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GFS still showing secondary development
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Colder at the surface this run than 18Z
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GFS still mostly rain for Friday but I don't really trust GFS thermal profiles with either storm but we'll see what the track is for storm 2
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Wasnt the Euro much colder than the GFS at the surface? Truthfully I find all the models usually overestimate surface warmth in these setups especially away from maybe the immediate coast
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If it's 30-32 instead of 33-34 for the NW burbs it could get crazy in terms of icing
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Tries to get interesting on the backside, normally back end ice/snow doesn't happen but in this setup with the strength of the high it's possible it could get wintry on the backend
