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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    Agree it is very rare for the immediate Metro area to hold onto a long period of frozen precip in these scenartos. It does happen though look at November but history says usually it's snow to brief Sleet/ZR and then rain. This storm looks a lot better for at least some accumulating front end snow than the last one did though because the surface temps are colder and the timing is much better with precip arriving in the morning rather than arriving late afternoon.
  2. HVSnowLover
    There is secondary development but it's hugging the coast instead of offshore. The way this is turning out I'd almost rather this have been a pure GLC with a weak secondary because now we will all get soaked after it goes above freezing
  3. HVSnowLover
    With the more recent trends it's enough rain to wash out any frozen that initially falls
  4. HVSnowLover
    Not quite, surface temps are no where near as cold with this.
  5. HVSnowLover
    GFS run isn't terrible Well it is on the backend because it absolutely soaks everyone but there is a decent amount of front end frozen
  6. HVSnowLover
    Thats true and low one could also go even further west and/or the secondary could go further west. It could still trend a bit in either direction but given the way this winter has gone if there is trending it will more likely be northwest not southeast.
  7. HVSnowLover
    Looks like another interior storm, story of the winter, the coast usually flips pretty quick to rain in these scenarios where the upper levels torch fast so I'm skeptical of a sleet storm still time for changes but right now the models are warming up the upper levels much faster than previous runs.
  8. HVSnowLover
    Similar overall, looks a touch worse to me.
  9. HVSnowLover
    GFS is pretty ugly, oy.
  10. HVSnowLover
    Cant say we go through this everytime when the setup is still 4 days out. If it stays the way currently depicted on the models then yes this would likely be the outcome
  11. HVSnowLover
    GFS definitely has a bit of a different look this run dont think it will be favorable for our area except the far interior zones.
  12. HVSnowLover
    When I say immediate coast I'm usually referring to Jersey Shore, South Shore of Long Island and southern Brooklyn/southern Queens/parts of staten island/lower Manhattan (which usually torches with the urban heating effect). These are usually the places that torch the fastest. I know everyone has a different definition, to some the immediate coast may go all the way to I287. Either way I think this is an interesting event for the area potentially.
  13. HVSnowLover
    A high like that in Feburary should keep everyone away from the immediate coast at or below freezing for most of the event.
  14. HVSnowLover
    Exactly the GFS has a warm bias with thermals, if it's showing the freezing line south of the city at the start of the storm it's a good sign.
  15. HVSnowLover
    I don't want to get excited yet but the GFS has a very similar look to the November storm. Not verbatim in terms of snowfall but in terms of the precip rushing in from the SW into cold air. Models usually underdo the intensity of the front end precip in these scenarios
  16. HVSnowLover
    Yea that storm was more intense overall so the possibility of major shifting was more likely. This is a weakish cutter at most even if it cuts the bulk of the precip hopefully falls well out ahead of it.
  17. HVSnowLover
    True this is a different setup though.
  18. HVSnowLover
    Unfortunately I lean toward agreeing. The bigger risk here is more amped and warm rather than surpressed but hopefully the needle is thread well enough to give the area some wintry precip
  19. HVSnowLover
    The way this winter is going a 2-4 inch event would be great, a 4-8 inch event would be awesome
  20. HVSnowLover
    Yes especially it's not like anyone is getting really screwed, the GFS gives everyone a solid snowfall the highest amounts are actually still up in Ulster and further north but it keeps basically everyone except parts of LI all snow/frozen.
  21. HVSnowLover
    Its got less qpf overall so yes the far NW areas may get a bit less snow/ice in the flatter scenario but overall it benefits the majority of the area to have the flatter solution.
  22. HVSnowLover
    CMC looks good too
  23. HVSnowLover
    Hope it looks like that 24 hours out
  24. HVSnowLover
    GFS is 4-6 inches area wide followed by a light mix at the coast, great run
  25. HVSnowLover
    Yea the GFS shows the most significant snowfall NYC has had since November on the frontend even with it's GLC scenario.
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