HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Yea i'm not buying the surface torch west of the hudson that the models are showing, temps are dropping a lot once you get well inland and usually these events stay mainly frozen NW NJ/SE NY West of the Hudson
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Yea the models showed a tight cutoff with this even across the city in terms of all rain southern NYC and several hours of snow at least in the air for northern NYC . It seems though you have to get NW of the Tappan Zee to see true accumulating snow (temps below freezing)
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Yikes mixing in Westchester already
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Precip type not so much the issue for some, warm surface temps are. It's sticking a bit now on grass and car tops but mostly it looks like rain.
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Thats where I am and it's definitely not 32, it's pouring snow and not sticking at all, temps too warm.
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They do though show snow when surface is above freezing, the models aren't great at picking up evaporational cooling though at times
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All snow yonkers/bronx border but not sticking at all
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Maybe for northern parts of the city at least briefly. Right now its like a tease with this light snow waiting for it to really kick in
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What a bust, looks like basically an all rain now for the city with highs around 50 tomorrow. Inland will see snow to maybe some ice to rain. All this tracking for this.
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RGEM has the low going through Northern CT and mixing well past Albany. Unfortunately trend is not friendly with this one
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The only possible excitement for most is the possible front end dump with crazy rates, not really expecting a November 15 repeat quite but I do think the potential is there for a a very fast but impressive front end dump especially for northern NYC and points NW. The rest of the storm will be just nasty rain until you get well NW of the city. The icing just never seems to really happen at the coast except in very unusual situations.
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Agree and from what Ive seen and gather the only places really at risk of no front end snow would be the south shore of LI and maybe the immediate coast of Queens/Brooklyn but even that i'm skeptical of, I think it comes in snow for everyone in NYC/LI
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Upton seems to be going with the NAM in their forecast, their highs on Sunday are pretty cold
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The trends tonight are good, not only a bit south but very heavy overrunning to start the storm coming into the metro area which means a repeat of something close to 11/15 is possible. I am not using the CMC/GFS in terms of surface temps, it's great news that the models are showing more precip out of ahead of the 850 surge.
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Not only can it but given the setup I would expect it
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The push of the 850 line def slower and further south this run. Overall its a good run even though surface temps are ugly in some places.
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GFS temp gradient is wild, Almost 50 on LI but not far NW of the city is below freezing. Overall this run looks colder in some places and warmer in others
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So then NYC is not all frozen
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I mean it's still medium range for the NAM, not yet it's ideal range.
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It's just two models and not the two most reliable given the range. I would wait for the rest of the 0Z suite before determining theres been a major shift
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Its showing .87 of ZR for NYC lol not that I'm buying that
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Snow maps actually not very impressive until you get to the Mid HV. Looks like a lot of sleet for the city and NW
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Wow this may be a you've been NAMed run but NYC Metro stays at or below freezing the whole storm
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Surface and 850s colder this run
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NAM looking noticeably south so far
