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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    RGEM continues the colder trend, looks like a pretty impactful icing event for many in the area may be unfolding
  2. HVSnowLover
    Yea the 850 push was not as strong as this run. Looked only a little north of I84 at its warmest point, if it pans out like this I think this could be mostly snow/sleet inland. I also think happening overnight keeps everyone colder, could be a Snow/Sleet to ZR event even for the immediate suburbs
  3. HVSnowLover
    The front end is juicier too.
  4. HVSnowLover
    NAM is starting to make this very interesting again.
  5. HVSnowLover
    If there is no initial precip I think it's an all rain event for the city. Maybe 32 degree ZR for Bronx/Upper Manhattan at the start but you won't see much icing until inland. The city needs that initial push to come through, it would also help knock down temps to get that initial burst.
  6. HVSnowLover
    This area is really dependent on the initial push, the RGEM for example has it making it to our area, some models don't. That would be your snow producer, anything after that would likely be rain coast/ice inland.
  7. HVSnowLover
    If I were to guess I'd say 287 will be the dividing line between a cold soaking rain and disruptive icing. I know that's not a big statement but in this storm the freezing line doesn't seem to move much at all the entire time and thats usually where the freezing line sets up.
  8. HVSnowLover
    The icing threat NW of the city will be the big story, however as usual the city and immediate surrounding areas should warm enough for cold rain after the initial snow/sleet
  9. HVSnowLover
    Really depends how far north that first front end burst makes it and how fast it comes in. That's the snow chance.
  10. HVSnowLover
    Yes will definitely change many times but that QPF is pretty
  11. HVSnowLover
    Next weeks storm looks like another non event for the coast, brief mix or snow to rain. Again an interesting storm inland but seems more icy than snowy. Yes I know it can change but this seems to be the pattern so far this year.
  12. HVSnowLover
    Yep at the coast especially you need crazy dynamics to go from 60 to a big snowstorm. Nobodies calling for a big storm though, a few inches is a reasonable expectation with this.
  13. HVSnowLover
    Yes that's not what we have here.
  14. HVSnowLover
    Temps do mean something if it's above freezing during the storm, we just saw the impact with the last event.
  15. HVSnowLover
    Would like to see the Euro come south to really feel like this storm is in business (it still has accumulating snow only north of the city) however I like the trends a lot. If nothing else the timing of the precip on the frontend has sped up which means it should definitely start snow or sleet.
  16. HVSnowLover
    CMC is even colder this run, it's probably the outlier at this point but it's pretty to look at.
  17. HVSnowLover
    GFS still a mess but it's slowing getting there toward the other models
  18. HVSnowLover
    There's a lot of sleet so I wouldn't take those snow maps verbatim but I would definitely sign up for that CMC run overall, would be a fun storm.
  19. HVSnowLover
    CMC is south again and colder than 12Z
  20. HVSnowLover
    GFS showing signs of being a little better, still don't think this is our storm but hoping to see some flakes
  21. HVSnowLover
    Yep timing not that favorable either, precip coming in during the daytime hours on Sunday will allow some warming before precip comes in. Of course last November precip came in the afternoon and we all know what happened but as of now this looks like a less favorable setup for front end snow.
  22. HVSnowLover
    Must be a lot of sleet, those maps often confused snow and sleet. However it would not show that type of accumulation if it was plain rain.
  23. HVSnowLover
    Yea it's definitely colder than the previous run, still not close for the metro area but definitely ticked SE with everything
  24. HVSnowLover
    Agree I think basically everyone will start as snow or snow/sleet from this, I don't really expect much if any accumulation near the coast but it will be nice to see the first flakes beyond flurries of the season for many. I think once you get into the HV then it's much more tricky in terms of this being a snow to rain event or a significant winter storm depending on the details.
  25. HVSnowLover
    While this is true, this isn't the main reason why this storm won't produce for NYC. We've seen a few November storms that have hit hard even down to NYC, however this is not a pure coastal, it's a bad setup for the coast.
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