HVSnowLover

Where you are and inland surface temps not the issue but for the coast they may be in terms of missing out on a front end dump, it'll be close.

Yea the slowing down is also probably partly making it warmer, if it came in say midnight Saturday there would be some initial cooling but coming in now late Saturday afternoon is not ideal for getting surface temps to cooperate

Mix bag of frozen precip

0Z runs will probably determine it, if theres going to be any further noticeable changes it likely happens by 0Z tonight

Pretty sure this is based off what happened in November, this time they want to go reverse and hype it up, better to be safe on their end and overestimate totals rather than underestimate

Agree not that it matters much although might mitigate washing it all away if there was a front end dump

I didn't see the entire run but agree with what was posted above people are exagerating how awful it is. It still even has 4-5 inches down to where I am at the border of Bronx and Westchester, it has a very sharp cutoff right across the city. The Euro is about 7-8 inches for Rockland County.

Sounds reasonable west of the city

I mean it's bad but it's actually not that bad given the track

Can't believe the GFS of all models may win with this storm

Yea this seems to be moving more toward a Sat Afternoon-Sunday Morning event as opposed to a Sunday event.

Probably an all out sleet storm up there on the NAM which is why no freezing rain and little snow. However snow totals probably should be higher as it'll be higher than 10:1 up there. Also two different NAM models snow totals were posted

Yea it's not like the coast is starting in the mid 20s, it's a marginally coldair mass. Normally it would get scoured quickly but with the PV influence if the winds stay NE it could be interesting. Of course south shore of LI yea I wouldn't expect much but from the city on NW the ZR threat can't be completely written off

This is a really helpful breakdown and possibly scary if it comes to fruition. I would say I wouldn't use 10:1 ratios to determine snowfall amounts because the ratios will be much higher than that in the interior and probably lower than that at the coast.

Well given the storm track the fact that we are even in the discussion for frozen precip indicates there is some cold air in place.

I didn't say they would trend NW I just said if they trend in any direction these big storms historically tend to trend NW

By this time though the models are fairly locked in and I wouldn't expected significant changes and unfortunately usally if there are major changes this close to a storm it's a NW trend rather than SE, thats why we do so well with coastals. I do agree in terms of the specifics of each model run we need to stop living and dying which each run and realize the overall picture which is a snow to wintry mix to rain event but the specifics are still not decided.

Yes this has cold air in place, it's just not super cold air but I think it'll be cold enough to start as heavy snow unless the track shifts dramatically west

Yea I think at this point it's less a question of overall storm development and more a question of surface temps/front end dump. In the November storm the models way overestimated the surface temps which led to much more accumulation at the coast than expected. This setup doesn't look as favorable with a west to east system but I wouldn't be surprised if places especially away from the immediate coast get thumped more than expected. Think the icing threat becoming less and less likely for the coast and more an I287 on northwest threat which is usually the case.

If the CMC/GFS are right the icing threat is mostly non existent, it's basically snow to rain from SE to NW for everyone. It is quite the model battle now between CMC/GFS vs Euro/Ukmet/NAM

Well we could've have asked for it to be colder lol but agree it's at least something interesting to track finally

CMC does get warm but it is a pretty intense front end dump for Northern NYC and the Burbs

Thats not actually what it's showing, we have to remember precip panels are for the previous 6 hours the city changes over around hour 78 but theres barely any qpf that falls after that.

Thats not good, it was colder last night

GFS still a torch, caved a little, still the warmest model at the surface, only model with surface temps above freezing well into the HV