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ASK YOURSELVES THIS QUESTION: If the deck was flipped and the Nam was showing what all the Globals and ensembles where showing currently. Meaning they all where putting out end result of just ice/rain mainly because of out of sync HP/LP configuration, but the Nam was painting 12-20 inches in a large area. Would you be discarding the Nam and going with consensus?
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Allans map matches up well with my thinking for the Triad region. Im in B and miss A by about 10-15 miles max. But he's spot on. This will be the biggest event since atleast February 28,2004 in Randolph county when we experienced 17-19 inches of snow and January 2000 the crusher witch had most of the county in 13-18 inches of snow.
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So you think Greensboro only gets 1 to 2 inches. Interesting
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Think it has hp screwed up because it has the ns sampled poorly. Want know for 24 more hrs
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Nam is also restricted in its raob spectrum where as globals arent handicapped as much. So this ns energy is not being seen well by nam at the moment and we can see how misplacing it will affect end result
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Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneled down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84
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Forecast 6-10 for the Triad with mixing and that should give plenty of flexibility. Northern foothills/mtns 10-16.
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Getting ready to see the Nam 84 hr GEE Club catch some egg in the face lol!
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Look at the position of HP, actually retrogrades back sw on the nam. harder to banana down east slopes of Apps.
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Nam has position of HP back over western Wisconsin and also slow with the LP. hence position of HP compared to 6z results in CAA being started latter. Also wake up guys, Raleigh want be getting dry slotted. The model only goes out to 84 and has been the slowest with start up time by 6 to 12 hours compared to other models.
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That"s a very safe bet an easy to achieve minimum total. If we don't mix at all its going to be 14-20. Cause we will get 1.6 to 2.0 qpf. I'm holding off and trying to get a better handle on the column. No doubt we'll see 8-12 even with sleet/mix at a minimum. Question that cant be answered currently is do we mix at all. I was dead set we would yesterday morning, but the models have continuously said we want over the past 24 hrs. However the transition line will set up shop and visit within arms reach at some point during the storm. The OTS and 850 lp staying to our south moving W-E should keep us out of harms way from waa ruining the column with a warm nose. If we do get a brief visit from the warm nose, we still have the fortune of sitting in the qpf sweet spot. Which means we can rack up fast with rates if they are timed on the front end or back end thumps. So gun to the head I'm at 10-14 right where we live. Saturday morning Ill bump up to 16-20 if confidence is still there we keep snow column throughout and bump down if we have to deal with brief to prolonged periods of sleet mixing in the middle of the storm.
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Canadian every run keeps getting RN/SN line further south. It had it up in VA this time yesterday. In fact it was the only model that had MBY all rain, even NC Mtns/Foothills. Not anymore, finally getting a sniff/clue. And as far as RAH fcst office. This is par for the course. If they had to be graded on 3-5 day forecast , they would be unemployed. We see and deal with this all the time over in the triad.
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How does this never happen in middle of july when its 90/70 everyday. I mean its popcorn time for this set of 0zs. What is dataflow issues. Probably some preventive maintenace an I.T. guy who lives in the MA decided to carry out
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Lol, aint that the truth. Get so sick of the introduce,step up,plenty time,bla blah blah.
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Thats the key, ticket right there to glory
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I like em Medium Rare!
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You guys see that kuchera map on fv3 and notice the drop in totals foothills western piedmont,then pick back up triangle area. But in Va, stae line area it was more uniform W-E. The old carolina split and with 850 low right under our nose but atleast luckily passing to our south,it will transfer energy as it morphs or phases with surface low off coast.
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Ukmet ?
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Go to king street webcam boone if you want to see heavy snow. Holy cow to be up there right now
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This is the million dollar question and anawers those benchmark questions as well. WHERE DOES THE 850 LOW TRACK. That will tell everyone what the precip type will be for your back yard.
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So much funner tracking as oppossed to looking for a pattern change weeks down the road. Which is usually what we are doing 1st week of December
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Of all 3 things Grit and Niner alluded to, to me the elephant in the room is holding off the NS sw as long as we can. Earlier this thing gets wound up back to our west the more its gonna waa up at 5,000ft above our heads. Now when its off the SE coast , it can go to town all it wants and deepen and suck in the cold air up above us on the NW side
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Ripping fatties up in Boone, one of those squall moments just happened. Amazing not just how historic this storm could be for mtn region, but how historic this winter can be for them especially as well as some others in foothills, piedmont.
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The rubber meets the road on this one fellas by figuring out at what point the phase happens. Later is better. Need the 850 low to stay underneath us and then phase off the SE coast and ride on out to sea. Also I know the Cad will be foretasted to warm on the global s. As everyone has learned and pointed out watch the hi res models (Nam) for the 2m and thermal profile trends as we work our way inside 4 days now.
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How did the eps and gefs look overnight
