NCSNOW

GL says hello. No HP in the ne. Should look different tonight.

12z today matches exactly what 0z had last night.

Heres the FV3 at hour 120: Notice you dont get the separation like the GFS. This is not what we need. Energy gets strung out or consolidated. want work.

Here's how this evoloution come to be on the 6z gfs. It started showing yesterday at H5. This southern energy gets left behind, separated from northern Stream at hour 120 you see this clearly on the 6z gfs. At 12z last night this trend had started , but not quite this much and the cold front didn't have a chance to get pushed through fast enough. Thus the surface low that spawns and rides up the front covered everything in VA in snow down to the state line. This morning Same thing happens, only we get just a little bit more separation as energy pinches off and the front is able to press down through NC enough before our surface low that spins up gets ejected deeper out of GOM and rides up the front. 6z gfs 120: AT 156: This is when its snowing good in NC, surface reflection is out in front. Notice NS coming down back side. I want open what goodies that could lead to. So the trend we are watching happens around hour 100-120 today on models. Need the energy to seperate on southern end and drop down.

Euro isnt far off though. H5 trend will be interesting today at lunch.

Id keep an eye on mid week. 0zGfs puts down 6 inches northern Rockingham county. Big Frosty scores a couple and 20 minute from his house 15 in fancy gap. Fact ground gets dusted to northeren guilford.

Jan25. 0z gfs almost laid white carpet down for it. Actually does in all Virginia. Got good seperation on the trailing vort, but the front hangs up, just need a little more nudge and we might score. We have a window , 4 weeks if the weeklies are right starting post jan25. Maybe we dont get 1985 cold. Ill trade it for a couple frozen precip chances. But from jan 25 to March 1st we are polar opposite of that same time last year. From what i read the quick mjo trip through 4,5,6 isnt gonna matter this time like recently. So take that for what its worth.

When we get to March 1st, I hope we come back and re visit these past few pages and couple of weeks of Lucy-Flu we all have been affected by. Well eitheir be saying I told you so or laughing at ourselves for worrying for nothing. If we cant hit one over the fence somewhere in this forum with this look we are evolving into,then we might as well be throwing jax against the wall next November and stepping on wooly worms, while we burn seasonal models and the farmers almanac.

Your spot on about today, even the mtns played catchup after the radar in TN lit up early this morning. This is a prime example, just like the crusher sneaking up on everyone, models have a hard time with spacing and timing Northern stream energy, espeacilly 3 + days out. Once the pattern becomes steady, like block getting situated,then theyll have higher skill most likely. You get a ns dominant pattern like well have more so post jan 25 and mix in active stj, it just scrambles everything more than it already is, making it tougher to calculate and draw the right conclusion. So buyer be ware.

@psuhoffman Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future.

#8. 8 Days in a row Greensboro has been below normal. Wasnt for the next 40-48 hours no telling how long this record would stretch, easilly 20+ days. Greensboro is also 150%+ above annual climo snowfall. Minus the 2 week torch from last week December and first 9 days of January. This truly has the potential to go down as a stellar top 10 winter if we can score a couple more marginal events.Had a -4 BN November and the potential to cash in a stellar last 6 weeks of winter. Of course there are no gurantees and it could go to the crapper next 6 weeks. But signals are strong things should unfold in a favorable way.

Pouring in Boone. Roads are whitening

Yep and mtn guys getting Heavy snow now

Itll change by late this weekend if not sooner. All you have to do is watch 500 vort maps and see energy flying all over the place and knowing the cold is there.. Also models,espeacilly American, arent gonna sniff out how all this works,phases,feedbacks etc till close in.

Want to know how easy it is to get caught off guard with ns systems being part of equation. Go in mtn thread this afternoon. Boone has advisory now,but models and nws getting ready to get sideswipped and it aint just gonna be flurries or sprinkle.

I remember that incident. I was rooting for clemson. Had privelage of meeting Dabo and that staff couple times. They are quality folks. What u see on tv is what you get in person.

He views Clemson they way I view the Southeast ridge and summer wx. Thus the disdain for Alabama causing him whaling and nashing of teeth living in Tiger town the next 365 days.

Watch canadian. Looked better with that energy but tired of waiting on run to finish. Wasnt holding bsck like gfs it appeared, more consolidated to.

Things.,Potential looking up for late next week 0z models. Lot of energy and cold pressing down. Check it out in morning. Should be tracking solid threat or threats by end of weekend.

Ive been fortunate to witness various types of wx events live. That would be a first. Closest was wind chill , in blizzard 1993 in cullowhee. I have seen heavy sleet at 19 degrees and heavy moderate freezing rain at 22 both in NC. 1988 was a cold synoptic snow upper teens. But 10 degrees and mod snow id love to expierence. Instant stickage.

12Z EPS today Agrees: AND 12z GEFS Agrees/Matches

Cant imagine NE NC/Tidewater and obviously mtns not getting couple hours changeover post front passage. We'll see

Cold coming down post storm: watch the clipper as well. Throwing stuff against the wall hunting anything to stick.

at 96/ 12z : May help with some back side

Euro keeps trending south every run