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Greyhound

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    2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    PAH Disco hinting at an excess of a foot where banding sets up-

     

    National Weather Service Paducah KY238 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021A major winter storm is taking aim on the area. The first round ofsnow will be tonight in a zone of increasing low/mid tropfrontogenetical forcing positioned out ahead of the main upper trof,that by 12z Monday should be over the central and southern Plains.We may see an initial 1-3" of snow tonight (give or take). We haveincorporated the HREF closely with a consensus of deterministicguidance for tonight and Monday (see below). We will be close toWind Chill Advisory conditions again tonight across portions ofsoutheast MO and southwest IL. We have addressed the bitter cold inour current Winter Storm Warning that remains as is from 6 PMTonight through 6 AM Tuesday.Monday, the main energy within the mid level trof comes up over topof the region in the afternoon and evening. This will be the roundof greatest significance (snow rates, accumulations, impacts). Theoverall trend seems a bit faster, so the lull is not expected tolast real long.WPC banding probabilities increase notably with the main wave, withsome inference of instability and prominent snowfall rates. The HRRRdepicts this possibility as well. So for now we have storm totalaccumulations 6 to 12". Given above average snow to liquid ratiosand this added concern, 12" may not be high enough should some ofthese indicators pan out. But for now, we have headed the rightdirection in our opinion.The snow will taper off Monday evening and should be all butcompletely over across southwest IN and the KY Pennyrile regionafter midnight.In terms of messaging, the bitter cold remains a real concern withthis system, as does the potential for blowing snow with NNE winds10 to 15 mph gusts to 20 mph or even slightly higher. Stay tuned forupdates and adjustments to snow amounts (if needed)..LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)Issued at 238 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021The main focus later this week continues to be another potentialwinter storm Wednesday into Thursday. This system is still four daysaway, so many details remain to be ironed out. The 500 mb patternactually appears more complex than it did yesterday, mainly becausea northern stream 500 mb shortwave has entered the picture. Thisnorthern stream shortwave will move down into the northern Plainsmid-week. There is some potential for this shortwave to shunt ourmoist southern stream shortwave further south. This is reflected ina majority of the model qpf fields, which show the heavy qpfsuppressed more to the south of the Ohio Valley than they didyesterday. There is also less of a warm air intrusion, which resultsin less mixing of wintry precip.In a nutshell, the 12z models are still split into two camps. TheEuropean solutions have trended even farther to the southeast,taking the surface low northeast from the central Gulf Coast toGeorgia. The gfs ensemble mean is also further southeast, taking thesurface low across Alabama Thursday. The gfs consensus basicallyplaces our region in the sweet spot for heavy snow, with heavy qpfshown by the gfs ensemble mean over the Ohio Valley and se Missouri.An elevated warm nose in the gfs guidance would result in mixingwith sleet or freezing rain se of the Ohio River.Until the models resolve the influence of the northern streamshortwave, the forecast will remain in flux. A forecast trend towarddrier and colder conditions is possible if the northern streambecomes more dominant. The models at face value today do continue tosuggest the likelihood of a winter storm Wednesday into Thursday.Otherwise, the main story on Tuesday into Wednesday will be thecontinued bitterly cold wind chills.Following the late week winter storm system, high pressure will passoverhead on Friday. In the wake of the high, southwest winds areexpected to bring above freezing temps this weekend following theextended winter blast. The ecmwf and gfs mos highs in the 50s at pahSunday look a little unrealistic given the snowcover, so theforecast will be for highs in the 40s. Model ensemble means havebeen in good agreement on a nearly zonal flow aloft this weekend.&&

    Sounds like blizzard conditions with the wind factored in

    Fall/Winter 20-21 General Observations

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Played golf today in shorts. Courses are still wet in spots but 70 degrees and a little windy today was beautiful. I actually feel like I’m a little burnt. Shot 2 under though.

     

     

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    What course? Two under??? Nice!!! I can sometimes shoot below par on miniature golf!!! But the real game.....I

    don’t plan on joining the tour anytime soon!!!

    • Like 1

    Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    20 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

    There's no doubt about that.  lol  Always good to see new newer members posting on these boards.

    I will say this about it being tough..................... if we saw snow every day I don't think we'd appreciate it near as much when it happened.  I absolutely love snow, but have family from Minnesota/Wisconsin.  I remember several times in my youth, spending a couple of weeks there at a time in the winter (around Christmas).  After being elated the first week or so of having snow, fatigue started setting in wanting to see the grass again.  I think it was then I figured out the chase and realizing a snow storm as it was happening was the most special part.  Snow just laying on the ground (to me) got old pretty quick.  lol

    I will take my chances........

    • Haha 2

    Jan 2021 Squallicane

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted


    How rough do you all get when you ride. I’d like to trail ride but not risking the equipment. My Jeep isn’t set up for that and personally I don’t care much for it. This is my Jeep. 5947534b7edd24dbe2587242ff0cc9bf.jpg&key=6701e69e527858a18b03d6514a34568a17b5015efe8610b96e5ff321ee9caed9


    .

    Nice Jeep!!! It’s just all depends honestly. That ride was in Royal Blue, on the west side of I-75. That area is mostly forest roads/trails.....some mud/dirt/gravel....and a few river crossings. The water can get deep in a few places. The east side of 75 of Royal Blue can be a bit more “wild”, and plenty more opportunities to damage your ride.

    I’m like you in that I don’t want to damage my Jeep, so I stick to the trails that I’m comfortable with. I’m still pretty much stock, other than put 33s on, as well as Rubicon take-off springs/shocks. With that being said, I’m comfortable on SOME trails at Windrock, but prefer smaller groups of like-minded people that don’t have dedicated trail Jeep’s. If you want to get out and hit some roads/easy trails, look on Facebook for Smoky Mtn Jeep Club. All of their stuff is super easy and fun.

    This pic is from the overlook at Windrock. 55ccfed708990261a97ed935471e8f43.jpg


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    • Like 4

    Jan 2021 Squallicane

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    That's all Campbell Co, Scott border is about 7 miles west.  That exit has just boomed for the city of Caryville. Those hotels stay booked year round for ATV tourism. 
    I can be at exit 141 in about 10 minutes on an ATV. 

    You are correct!! I call that exit the Scott Co exit......even though I know that’s wrong. Just like I still call it Lake City instead of Rocky Top!! Pretty area up there......you are very lucky to live in that area.


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