Greyhound

Based on all the Nostradamus Facebook Weather Forecasters…….grocery stores should get hard.

Bama is getting rolled today


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Anyone having issues with the Tapatalk app?  For the last day it won’t open any of the forums/pages.  I have updated the app and restarted my phone…..but still the the spinning circle-arrow of impatience persists.

Birds are acting up again. Something sort of unusual weather is on the way in the next week or two. 

Nice happy hour GFS run for the ever popular day 10 window. 

You guys are killing me I am trying to finish a huge paper on the Purdue Pharma and their creation of the Opioid Crisis but I keep coming back here lol 

Friend at the UT / Clemson game posted this pic. Says “Enjoy Your Bowl Game - Gamecocks”.

Well done USC…..well done.

Hello neighbor!  I'm just south of Halls proper, nestled between Black Oak Ridge and Beaver Ridge in Hines Valley.  The roads are brined, I guess we will see how effective that is.

Ken Weathers with WATE Knoxville has a good post passively addressing all the Facebook weather forecasters. Here’s a graphic he posted along with his comment

I just read a post, maybe even by you, from the March storm as it approached, that the Euro had just completely caved to the GFS. That said, this one is still early in the game regarding the storm. Extreme cold seems nearly unavoidable but it would be tempered with snow vs without snow. There's still very often major model disagreement inside 90 hours over the last few years.

Now that the first big threat of the season is here, the social media "weathermen" are posting clown maps all over the place to get more likes and shares.  On top of that, the general public has a more favorable view of these guys than they do real meteorologists - mainly because these guys start posting 10 day snow maps and the real Mets don't talk totals until 96 hours or less from the event.
Am I the only one that really gets annoyed with these guys? 

Yeah that was a lot of nothing


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Anybody heard from Jeff?  Kansas is playing for a Natty tonight and we haven't heard a peep!!!!

Now saying the fire has spread to 3,000 acres with zero containemnt (per the lt governor).  Mandatory evacuations from Wears Valley and Walden Creek area.  There's a news conference at 10am for updates.

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Anyone know how things are going on the west slope of the Smokies this AM?  I am hoping they got plenty of rain.

I heard a brief report but can't remember all of it.  Said something along the lines of higher humidity and dewpoints helped slow the spread some, but still struggling for containment.  Interviewed a lady who lives in Wears Valley said the tourists and rubberneckers need to get out of the way so EMS can get to the fires.

Does this annoy the living bejezus out of anyone else or is it just me????  

That's not tonight.....that's tomorrow morning!!!!

22 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

pretty different profile around Knoxville:

 

More tapered, sort of a warm cheek. I have no idea if those soundings are realistic. 

I'm terrible at deciphering these things.  Would that indicate the typical "cold rain" scenario with some sleet mixed in?

Not to be a negative Nancy, but I'm not putting much stock in this.  I'll admit I haven't been following along on this system because of other work/life responsiblities, but this year just hasn't worked out very well for my location in Knoxville when compared to the many opportunites for bigger storms.  The main thing that makes me not get excited about this is the transfer of energy off the coast.  I just haven't seen very favorable results in those type scenarios for my location this year.  Plus.....my skin has already felt the warmer temps of impending spring, and I'm done with winter.  So I'll begrudgingly take my four snows of one inch each and call it done.

(I have stated my rant, so lets hope I'm wrong and we all get a big thumping!!!)

Based on the thunder / lightning we got last night, I fully expect the TIMS model to give me solid 1-2 FEET of snow in the very near future.

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Michigan should be disqualified from the Big Dance. 

My annoyance (among many...ha!) is that it's being reported that he's suspended for the "rest of the season"!!!!   What's being overlooked by many is it's just for the REGULAR season.....so a few more weeks.  Comes time for post-season........he's baaaaaaaack!!!!   

My take is he should be suspended for the rest of the season....no matter how long it is.  

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Might as well show the snow map, just in case the GFS is having one of it's moments of long range clarity:

Assume this is before the multidirectional shift away from the great TN Valley region?

23 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

Not sure if this article has ever been posted here, but it's an interesting list. Look at #1

I'd say the list is skewed a bit since the winters in the 70's were probably the snowiest on record by average for most of the area, but still is interesting to see what areas have received more or less snow since that decade.

 

https://stacker.com/stories/4020/how-snowfall-levels-have-changed-across-100-us-cities

Rebuttal to the last sentence of the Knoxville entry:  "having less snow might seem nice and certainly be convenient, but it represents a gradual decline in regional climate that will have a ripple effect on what grows and what survives."

We get plenty of cold rain to make up the difference.

[mention=16126]Holston_River_Rambler[/mention]bringing the goods with the mountain torque stuff.  I couldn't find my way out of a paper bag if trying to discuss MT.  [mention=2545]nrgjeff[/mention], man, was working on this post when you posted....
 
1.  I may have actually misread Larry on this one.   Here is his quote regarding March.  He is not overly cold for February BTW.  This is just relating to the PV discussion:
Changes in the circumpolar vortex at the stratospheric level (10MB), with a transfer of coldest values to Canada, might allow a comeback assault of frigid air at some point between March 1 and 10. But the sun is getting higher in the sky, and opportunities to build snow cover after this week appear limited.
2.  The 50mb anomaly on the 18z GFS looks pretty jostled.

3.  The GFS has had a clipper around the 204 range and is moving it forward in time.  It has had that for days.
4.  Here is the d5-10 500mb pattern and the d10-15 500mb pattern.  If the EPS is correct, the pattern should mature in the d10-15 range.  



 
5.  CANSIPS model from WxBell shows a cold February(edit!) which looks awfully similar to the GEFS and EPS.  With February often being an active weather month, hard not to like that.  It has AN precip for the month over the TN Valley, but the event tomorrow may skew that a bit.  The CPC today has the 6-14 w/ BN precip.  That said, sometimes cold/wintry patterns have BN precip OR the pattern is just dry!


 
6. And the only teleconnection that matters....
Punxsutawney Phil, Poppy, Mount Joy Minnie and Octoraro Orphie gave their predictions today, with a nearly unanimous prognostication for six more weeks of winter. Only one -- Orphie -- is calling for an early spring. 
https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/heres-what-punxsutawney-phil-and-lancaster-countys-own-groundhogs-predicted-on-groundhog-day-2022-photos/article_5457d342-8421-11ec-9f66-bfca0220a202.html
 
I hope Phil has his crap together on this...

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I don't know how reliable this person is, or if this sort of bias is normal for the HRRR, or if it even matters, but something to consider I suppose:

 

Bio on his main page says he's a forecaster with NWS/SPC............

Seeing that the interstates in Knoxville had more brine than I had snow (.77” vs dusting)……my wife and I went on a 10 mile hike in the GSMNP. We started at Chestnut Top trail, went down Schoolhouse Gap to
Laurel Creek Rd. Since it was closed, we walked the last 3.7 back on the road. Temp was 21 when we started and 28 when we finished. I would guess the max depth of snow to be around 3”.