40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I said last night, that would be my tipping point...I wouldn't even melt. I've already done that. I'd leave...this season has already taken enough from me with so little return. Spring Training begins soon. -
Amazing how everything that has developed this season has been LBSW...you would have never guessed that in a mod la nina.
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This storm is like a post ERC hurricane....large, wobbly, and not at all pretty to look at it. The high end potential is mitigated, and folks try to reconcile that with the fact said mitigated impacts will be more expansive in scope. "Its only a cat 2, but spread out over 100mi and what a surge"="It tacks over Bermuda and may not be 20", but more people in the game for 10".
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You can tell it was windy and the air was well mixed because you were colder than I was.
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Probably not with respect to H5 positioning, but potentially in term of anticipated sensible weather across the region..
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Bottomed out at 6.3 at home..
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Even with the cold vacating prior to the onset of the storm, there is an advantage to having the marine layer flushed out with an arctic surge, prior to a prolonged easterly fetch....
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06z EPS is pretty dead nuts on 12z EPS yesterday
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Yea, it zigs as the rest of the guidance zags.
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@Baroclinic Zone Let me know what confused you, and I'll elaborate...
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I wasn't melting over the EURO, but for instance, I need to remain mindful that a track over the BM doesn't yield climo results in this as far as deform placement, etc.
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Perfect example of why our upper tier events almost never crush the mid atl...you need to deal with this crap. It can and does work out, but there is more that can go wrong, and the ceiling is lowered a notch or two. When we first began tracking this, I threw up in my mouth a little when I saw the 20"+ totals in PA.
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Gotta be honest, I keep losing sight of this, as well.
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Yea, I meant qualitatively....more like 8-16", as opposed to 15-30".
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Yes.
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That is not far from a March 2018 look...
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Yea, def.....I could have done without seeing the OP Euro do that last night, but I would give it like 3 on the concern meter.
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CJ parade. Its not a disaster, but I have higher hopes.
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I'm not worried too much about it....subtle phasing nuance. Not as much N Stream insert, so less vort...track essentially the same, maybe a hair east.
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EURO kinda blows. Night.
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Looks like the GEM and Ukie are stalling it further north now...that little capture and tug NW was down by Norfolk, then the Delmarva, now its near NYC.
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LOL .01" in the CTRV.....hey, Dec 1992 dropped like 2" of snow there in Springfield...
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Can someone post the UK QPF map?
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If you take the mean of 12z over Bermuda, and 00z over NH, its right where it should be.
