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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously this scales back confidence in a large storm, but not as much as it may ostensibly appear....wait on the GEFS and EURO suite. I still feel as though its coming.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    This run will probably look worse than 00z at the surface simply because we end up with all N stream, and that parcel of energy is weaker than that run. However, the important consideration is that the SW energy is not nearly as cut off as that run. Its just a bit too late.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its def not as disjointed as the 00z GFS, though.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    The PNA ridge being a hair less amplified probably didn't help-
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, by hour 141 its clear this run is shit.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just saying....not directed at you, per se.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wait for GEFS before bridge shopping.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks a bit less favorable vs 06z through hr 117
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    ICON looks to have dragged the SW energy a bit more than 00z...
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think maybe something can be gleaned from any discernible trend...
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, exactly in line with my Outlook....2008-2009 a very good ENSO analog in terms of ONI and EMI. This isn't to imply that this winter will be as cold, so lets get that out of the way.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, it weren't for that, I would have zero hope.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Plenty of concern at day 7....sure.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....I actually think he is pretty good, but tends to be pig-headed when things aren't going according to plan. I remember he was going for a pretty big winter back in 2022-2023 and never really did capitulate that it wasn't and didn't work out.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Facebook. Remember the "Deal with it" joke from like 18 years ago on Eastern? I was laughing so hard...I'll screenshot it to you guys via text lol
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    To a point....in SNE latitude will also be important because it will shunt eastward.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interior NJ, yes....I am talking about right on the shore in downtown NYC...I wouldn't want to pin. my hopes on a 1'+ there.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cosgrove had a defiant post last night....rain for the big cities, and cold not impressive...."up and down winter, just deal with it".
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I guess I should have been more specific....by "large", I mean a foot or more. Several inches, sure. My fault.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe....that track hugging is precarious that far south before it jets east.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, NYC proper is probably not getting a large snowfall out of this....agreed.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like the EURO will come back at 12z....if not, then worry....sure.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think they look fine for my area...latitude helps because the system only gets so far to the north.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have still noted a diurnal fluctuation, though.....
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