40/70 Benchmark

No, certaintly not done for Atlantic Canada...agree.

I had almost 20"January 7 last year....2 years prior many spots had 24-30"...but I know what you mean generally speaking.

I know the EURO has been off in the other direction of late....this is why it has been often too cold in the longer range, as it has underestimated the amplitude in the MC phases. I don't have stats and don't care to look, but you do you.

Yea, but I never expected much...my forecast was essentially a punt.

No. Better.

What can am I kicking? Expected a shitty December and below average seasonal snowfall across the board, but I'd rather take my chances at peak climo than Nodecember.

Even if it did go into the MC...may not matter much with the GLAAM forecast to remain high in conjunction with better climo. We have been in the MC most of December.

ECMFW sucks with the MJO.

I'm ready for a January thread.

My bet is nothing ends up on the ground for most.

I feel like the high end potential is gone.

Valid concern...March '23ed

Yup..always like 7mi north of my house. I'll bet something like that works out.

Thank God for that antecedent airmass that has fueled group masturbation all week...I never would have scored that inch on this solution.

As in the Lat/Lon coordinates, not MBY lol

I'm fine with where this sits right now.

Yea, I pinned my December call on the MC forcing that is just being overwhelmed by that potent PNA that is likely at least partially attributable to the ongoing +GLAAM. Hey, after these last couple of years, I would rather be too conservative in terms of east coast cold and snow.

Yea, they cleaned up on CJ

Looks like my main miss so far was the big +PNA Dec...I had it for January, but not December, so I will end up too warm this month. Looks like more of a 2020-2021 Dec-Jan mismatch, as opposed to the Jan 2022 type that I favored.

Doesn't really matter.

I remember the old South Weymouth Naval Air Station used to radiate well.

Yea, could be.....like a binary "one or the other" type of deal...we see that with track sometimes, too.

I don't love the strength of that primary so far NW.

Like clockwork....we need to emerge from this nighyly crap/favorable day time oscillation to really take this seriously later this week.

Pre-Christmas Winter Storm Possible Next Weekend Holiday Travel Contingencies Should Be Considered Warm ENSO Flavor to Month of December Continues Despite both the Relative Ocean Nino Index (-.80 SON) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (ON) both being indicative of a meager La Niña event, the month of December has featured a notable departure from the type of pattern normally associated with cold ENSO. Although inconsistencies of this nature are much more common in weaker ENSO events, the deviation during this month of December has been much more prominent than one would expect. Here is the prototypical La Niña pattern: Note the prevalent ridge south of the Aleutians, which tele connects to the downstream trough over the west in what is known as the RNA (-PNA) pattern. However, the mean pattern this month has been essentially the opposite, with an Aleutian low that is very redolent of the baseline El Nino pattern. This type of pattern is much more conductive to east coast winter storms during the winter season, and with winter set to begin this weekend, the atmosphere looks as though it just may oblige during the peak of pre-Christmas roadway roadway congestion. High Volume of Holiday Road Traffic Potentially Impacted by Weather The combination of the MJO entering phase 6 and the continuation of a surplus of Angular Atmospheric Momentum will ensure that the aforementioned El Niño like deviation to the pattern will continue throughout the upcoming week and into the weekend. There is now strong cross-ensemble suite support that this will lead to the amplification of a northern stream shortwave courtesy of a deep eastern northeastern trough, at the precise time that pre-holiday roadway congestion is anticipated to peak this weekend. While significant snowfall, or even a storm, is far from a certainty, what is a certainty is that area roadways are going to begin to look a lot more like Christmas this weekend. Thus it is advised that travelers have contingencies in place in the event that the weather follows suite. More to come this week-