40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Those will probably shrivel some going forward. -
WOR....STOP WORRYING. You have margin for error on that map, and keep in mind...I agree east kicks are still likely, but model QPF is NOT going to capture the full extent of that deformation, so its not far enough west to begin with. NVM that this has so much s stream origin. This is NOT Juno....this is NOT March 2018.....this is on another level as far as regional impact, though probably similar east. This will be the most severe regional impactor in 9 years- Period.
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Man, that run is 3' in the CTRV....IDC what anyone says.
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I know. Another consideration.....occlusion is now delayed, so this won't be as banded as prior runs.......maybe the subby holes are 18" now, instead of 12". That will be a wall of water plowing into deform zone.
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Leave it to scooter to come up with the verbal dutch oven-
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I would go BLIZZ Watch from Kevin to ORH to ASH
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I would still be very hopeful from CTRV points east, and still in the game all the way back to NY border.
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I think SW is pretty well sampled now....maybe a bit better 12z tmw?
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If this was go time, I would fully expect the deformation zone to be in CTRV instead of over me, as modeled.
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Hopefully we don't trend that anymore, but I expect things to escape a bit more...hopefully negated by guidance not being west enough with deformation.
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I will bet you $1000 the deformation sets up west of where guidance has it 12-24 hours out.
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Reverse regression, Methuen due.
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Well, it didn't totally work out...he described 10' drifts and a storm equal to or exceeding 1978, but phase was less proficient than expected.
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Good. F&*k Boxing Day......00Z CMC fine by me.
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No, just the DELI back then.....they started to ramp up with that stuff like 2004ish....selling pizza and such.
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My favorited AFD ever was the one from @wdrag on Sunday evening, March 4, 2001. Never forget reading that after I got home from my part time shift at MB
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That 32" for Methuen in 3/5/01 sounds about right...just north of there in se NH had JP at 36-40". I had about 22" in Wilmington.
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OOOOOHHH.....haha That makes perfect sense. Gotcha. Yea, I know this is a decent spot, I just moved here for a bad stretch. Hopefully that ends in about 72 hours-
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One thing I have in the back of my mind ....I have seen others mention this, is that these models are NOT going to launch these deformation zones far enough west. I remember vividly...in the lead up to March 14, 2018....model QPF was killing PYM, and I was near the edge of the good stuff. Then, in the wee hours of the morning.....it began as rain where I was in Wilmington, and I swear, I was out in my driveway at 3am looking for a football to spike bc I knew that meant. 31" later.....
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Yea, probably not jackpot, but I have a safe floor.
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GFS NARCAN......that seems a bit much, though. Sometimes that algorithm goes haywire.....I would cut that in half.
