40/70 Benchmark

Well, Miller As can still be nice events, just not upper echelon for us. However, ironically enough it's our usual friend the N stream that ended up our foe here by pulling the s streamer due north. At the end of the day, this system is a poster child for how more can go wrong with respect to Miiler A because they cover more ground before reaching us...both track and life cycle evolution (occlusion) are coming into play here. This is the shit that you are less likely to deal with in Miller B events and it's a good example of why I loathe Miller Asshole. You just want the storm to go BOOM, and hit you as dynamics peak with little time for other mitigating factors to intervene. A bomb detonating down the street will usually have a greater impact than one detonating hundreds of miles away.

Cosgrove starting to talk this one up for I95. The fact that there isn't one post about the EURO in the other thread tells you people are entering the acceptance stage lol

Ha...that is even a bit more conservative than mine.

I know Kev hates him, but my view on him is he really knows his stuff.....but he wears his emotions on his sleeve, and I think that in conjunction with his dyslexia can sometimes negatively impact his ability to effectively convey information.

DT's First map looks like mine. Nice event for NNE

It will be a nice WAA slug, no doubt.

Maybe that helps limit WAA a bit, but it also caps QPF.

As much as I have continued my several season run of getting porked in relation to snowfall this season, one thing I have noted this winter is that my retention has been better than most of SNE. You can tell its been a bit colder up here with the small amount of latitude that I have on SNE. What little snowfall I have had has been tenacious.....that has continued this month, as snow is very spotty closer to Boston, where they had good but more last Friday, and here, where I still have just about full coverage. Shame I haven't had more fall.

My guess is we get at least one more major threat before the end of the month....then after we thaw in February, hopefully I am right about the redevelopment of late season blocking.

Well, keep in mind that this is occluding as it hits us.

Its like 4-5"

Euro is much more realistic IMO, Steve....check that NARCAN.

GFS is about 10" here.....possible, but I will take the under attm. I think that is my ceiling, though....if EVERYTHING breaks right.

I buy that for you.

I said this earlier tonight, Steve, but I feel as though the GFS is overdoing QPF east of the mid level lows...classic model bias. I know that you are aware, but meteorology, not modelology....any snowfall algorithm is only as good as the model output from which it is derived....so yea, I will punt the 20" in N ORH county on the GFS to the moon and back.

Its my preferred snow algorithm, but it's still merely a tool....sure, if all I did was rip and read that on my blog, then clearly I would forecast 9.7" of snow for you. I would also view more than one model....

Looks like we are going to make it it your 1/20 date of pondering whether we may waste this period.

Well, this one's number will not be retired here in MEHthuen...can tell you that. Lol

Man, the former museum man is feisty tonight

Is what never right?

Yea, maybe for N ORH country and the hills of NW CT...

Nothing wrong per se, but I myself don't really see the value in beating those large scale features at this juncture....I think the major details to iron out are the more nuanced features that we were discussing earlier this evening. But it's a weather forum...knock yourself out.

This AM was it for me. The SW came ashore and it still sucked. Now it's just ironing out the nuances from here on in...

Yea, I don't get the run to run scrutinizing at this point.

I'm so passed that...it is what it is, at this point....small wobbles in track are meaningless for most of SNE.