40/70 Benchmark

UK is too strong with la nina....tossed.

The French guidance is basically 2000-2001 with respect to ENSO, which is maybe why it does that? Very weak modiki la nina.

Then, there is the UK....

I'm sure you are, but the question is, will mother nature be? lol

I don't think December will be as cold as the French guidance would imply, but I like the JMA idea of a some neg NAO with marginal cold. Coast could have issues early on....could be like a December 1996 transitioning to a January 2003 look before the fun period gets more widespread...with ultimately a relaxation later.

This is what I mean about the 2010-2011 element....the guidance tries to pass the baton from a good Atlantic early on to a better Pacific in January.

My theory all along has been for a blocky first half, or at least first third, and I see this emerging as a theme among guidance. The French suite is particularly weenie, but they all have at least some NAO east, to a degree, early on.

French Kiss:

Well, I would just say it was a weak la nino and leave it at that because being N stream reliant is always a risk in weak el nino seasons. That is why you guys want them a bit more robust, like 1957, 1986, 2002 and 2009. Maybe the weaker STJ was exacerbated coming off of a triple deep la nina because the weak nino of 1977-1978 had a bit more of a STJ, but the main thing is you want a more moderate el nino. I think you will get that next year.

It could be similar just in the sense that 1976-1977 had a very diffuse STJ and was all N stream...that is why it sucked down there. That is a risk this year......that said, I def. would not use it as an analog, per se.

Early guess at December:

Bouchard was awful IMO.

That December pattern really reminds me of the Cantore "Thundersnow" month of December 1996, which makes sense to me....I don't think it will be a frigid month, but do buy some NAO blocking with an active look. I think the PNA will be more positive, which is a big difference from December 1996....it will just take a while to build up the cold reservoir in Canada. I think the cold comes after the holidays.

This one post beautifully encapsulates everything that I have been trying to convey to @snowman19. Seasonal forecasts are almost like fantasy drafts in the sense that people don't always appreciate that you need to evaluate analog seasons in terms of percentages....ie if you are looking for 1995-1996/2009-2010 upside, then this season is likely to disappoint. But that doesn't mean it isn't going to deliver pretty high value. In fantasy sports, there are some players that are drafted highly because of the high degree of confidence that they will have a decent season, rather than an elite ceiling. This season to me feels like it has a safe floor and a relatively low ceiling for a lot of the east coast, so while it may not have the allure of the high ceiling to lure weenies into drafting it in the first round, I think its a safe bet to return decent winter value. We have a hemisphere in a great state of flux as it begins to rapidly shift gears towards a warm ENSO phase, and quite a favorable one for winter enthusiasts, at that......JMHO.

Totally buy that.

Man, I hated that event.

We'll have to agree to disagree on the NAO this December. We'll see...

1.17" yesterday and .77" today for a 1.94" event total. Total for all of July-August was 2.18". Today's .77" was equal to my August total of .77".

Depends on how you view analogs....I think December will be wintery, but I also view 1999-2000 as a viable analog. Anyone who feels as season needs to be a replica of what is to unfold doesn't understand how analogs work (not saying that is the case with you).

Yea, but the result was that the compression between the -NAO and record RNA sheared all of the storms to shit...that's why we couldn't even a SWFE up here last December.

I would say the ample cold source in Canada prevents the torch across the northern US. I think we could sustain a PNA....hell, we had a +PNA after December even last year.

@ORH_wxmanDJF looks as though the cold source would be locked and loaded. Looks to me like that would transition from very stormy (think nor'Easter) pattern in December with marginal cold(1996 like?) to more of a SWFE regime with plentiful cold mid season before ending with a whimper.

Exactly. I know we said that last year, but I will take my chances on a avoiding another record RNA.