40/70 Benchmark

EPS is east...suprise, suprise....

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGHeh..have a look at our Korean friend....that'll do.

That run looks more like the GEM...especially the 12z run

Much better than 12z, though.

I'm going to reevaluate on Monday night and make a First Call....hope I'm wrong about this.

That happens later...need to be at least March.

Major Storm Threat Next Week Likely to Yield More Bark Than Bite Recurrent Pattern Renders Major New England Strike Unlikely Tropical Constructive Interference with Pole Triggers Major Storm Threat Last weekend it was explained that the MJO would be moving out of the Maritime Continent, which is where it currently is as this weekend's system tracks inland, and into phase 8 towards mid month. The implication of this is that the tropics would begin to constructively interfere with the disturbed polar domain from approximately mid month onward. Guidance has began to reflect this, as ridging begins to build out west behind a departing Pacific wave that is forecast to eventually phase with one of the split polar vortex lobes. beneath the negative NAO block. Guidance is in good agreement on the overall pattern next week, which bares striking similarities to a major storm threat from January Redux of January PNA Ridge Structure Likely to Yield Similarly Flawed Phase The modeled 500mb pattern on the European ensemble mean at first glance appears immensely ominous next week, which is why many media outlets have already began to sound the alarms on a "historic blizzard" potential. However, there is ample reason to doubt that this system will phase proficiently enough with the southern stream wave moving up the coast to impact the forecast area in a major way. Note the similarity in the forecast position of the PNA ridge next week in the above image to that which preceded the major storm threat of January 11th. This has been a very prevalent feature in the seasonal mean, which may at least partially explain the relative absence of major snowfalls across the region despite the relative cold temperatures. In the instance of the storm threat from last month, there was a significant amount of guidance that phased the systems very well, which yield a blizzard throughout the forecast area. However, that of course did not happen, as the phase was very "ragged" and the region ended up with a light to moderate snowfall. There is strong ensemble consensus in this pattern taking shape once again, as the GFS and Canadien ensemble mean both strongly supported the previously posted European ensemble mean. This lends support to the notion that the storm system next week is unlikely to affect the region with anything more than a light to moderate snowfall, given that the position and orientation of the ridge out west is likely to hinder the eventual phasing attempt over the eastern US. Stay tuned for a potential First Call on Monday night-

My early thoughts....I think some are chasing a pot of fool's gold. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/major-storm-threat-next-week-likely-to.html

Why would you be referring to 2023?

Well, to be fair, it was for a lot of the region.

I will say that the 18z EURO looked more ominous to me, as it looked poised for a "GEM" of a phase.

Its the only model that never bit on Jan 11th.

I would rather be in your area than mine.

Never fails ...either too far north or south. This how a locale finishes safely below average for 7 consecutive seasons.

If it does, its occluding.

Final Call for Messy Holiday Weekend Storm Snow to Rain Near the Coast & Significant Ice Inland Synoptic Overview: The larger synoptic scale overview remains unchanged from Wednesday's First Call. This weekend, a southern stream wave will begin to interact with a lobe of the polar vortex pinned to the south of a potent -NAO block. The combination of antecedent elevated east coast heights attributable to the Maritime continent phases of the MJO and the -NAO block being positioned sufficiently north as to allow a partial midwest phase will maintain enough eastern ridging to allow for an inland track of the low. This will delay the transfer of the mid level low to the coast until the system reaches a very high latitude, which will ensure that snowfall will be relatively limited across much of the region. However, once the system progresses far enough to the east, it will begin to be influenced initially at the surface by confluence due to the tandem of the -NAO block and the potent 50/50 low. It now appears as though the surface low will redevelop on the coast quickly enough so that a portion of the area receives a significant, albeit manageable ice storm on Sunday. Expected Storm Evolution: Precipitation will overspread the region as snowfall from southwest to northeast on Saturday evening. After a few inches of snowfall, precipitation will rapidly transition to some ice and rain to the south of the Mass turnpike after midnight early Sunday morning. The changeover will slow somewhat as it works into northern areas by mid day due to increased resistance from confluence. However, the potent primary mid level low to the west will ultimately win the battle and snowfall will give way to ice. And then eventually rain, outside of perhaps northern Worcester country during the afternoon. However, towards evening the surface low will transfer to the coast, which will re-advect colder air from the northeast down the coast. This would reintroduce icing issues across especially interior northeastern Mass over through the eastern slopes of the Worcester hills. In fact, precipitation may even change back to snowfall prior to ending entirely later Sunday evening. FINAL CALL: First Call issued Wednesday, February 12 @ 830pm:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/final-call-for-messy-holiday-weekend.html FINAL CALL: First Call issued Wednesday, February 12 @ 830pm:

Final map is all done....should be post by 9.

Yea, I'm sorry...if next week whiffs or brushes me to the south, then this is a dirty, diseased rat.

A lot of the fun for me with these is dreaming high-end, and this is capped. Sucks.....7 consecutive subpar seasons it is, but at least I had a wintry stretch this month.

I know this whole set up blows for me...don't worry, not going to take it out on you.

Agree on the high end range.

Why? I expect it.....not the type of system for high end here.

Good luck with a full phase at an appreciably low enough latitude for a historic impact anywhere in SNE...more like NS. The look out west just begs for a messy phase.