40/70 Benchmark

It's not uncommon for a major signal to fade in the medium range only return with a vengeance, but I'm just leery of the seasonal trend with respect to western heights. Been impossible to reverse once it sets in...otherwise, I would still favor this period a something very noteworthy.

I didn't see that post. But you've done that before and we have his same argument. Anyway. Sorry for derailing

I love the guy from the epicenter of the KU orgy last several years telling everyone else how they are due for less snow. Apparently I need to a full decade without approaching normal...maybe sacrsrice a few showshovels to the oes gods.

I'd be shocked at this point if things trend back to a KU. I think that ship has sailed. Again, I get all of the caveats regarding how far out it is, anything can happen, insert cliche...blah, blah.

Not my area.

I have no doubt this season could take a replica March 1956 pattern and result in 39 and fog.

I'd rather nothing happen and worm hole to spring....words wouldn't be able to convey my frustration if a big kahuna skirts to my south, at this point.

Whole run blows fat ones H5 looked decent....famous last words.

Right over the Benchmark...deformation zone, that is. EPS will probably be better.

Set up still looks like trouble for my area, but better than OP

GEFS look good

I'll wager a guess considering the silence...lol

I think we table the HECS deal if this trend doesn't reverse by tomorrow. These death spiral medium range trends this year never end well...especially ones involving western heights.

Hopefully it remains meteorologicallly insane, rather than ultimately driving everyone insane like all of the other noteworthy looks this year lol

GEFS look too suppressed for my liking.

Even George is approaching this with a level head...props there.

Who?

Major Storm Potential Looks Next Weekend Protracted Ordeal Possible Thus far in the early going, the month of March is setting a feverish pace to the regional weather, and early indications are that this may continue next weekend. Cross Ensemble Consensus Supported by Teleconnector Convergence All three major ensemble camps are in agreement that a potent piece of Pacific energy is gong to eject out of the western US over the course of the coming week, and is likely to become virtually pinned under a very congested north atlantic pattern next weekend. EPS: GEFS: GEPS (Canadien): While it is an entirely fruitless endeavor to discuss specifics at this time, this is the type of regime that has bred very intense winter storms in the past, most notably March of 1956, which is a season that has been referenced frequently as a potential late season analog. The potential period of interest is also coincides with a period of mass flux that is evident among both the Pacific: And arctic domain spaces: Which bolsters confidence that this time frame as it increased risk for a major event because this is the type of mass flux on a hemispheric scale that often triggers many of the regions most prolific winter storms. Stay tuned for updates later this week if deemed appropriate.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/major-storm-potential-looks-next-weekend.html

As Gerry has said, that timeframe is actually a better fit for the March 1956 analog, which got cranking mid month.

Ironically enough, the EPS has snowfall map accurately reflects where the deform band would be on that weenie OP run.

Euro says deal. Man...Sat night to Sunday AM. What a long, drawn out affair.

What a pants tent plot....holy shit, I'd eat the entire contents of my diaper genie to hold that.

Hi.

That OP run would deform from near ORH to me....but best fronto band probably bear NYC and N NJ