40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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You're right...like everyone else, my seasonal stuff leaves much to be desired and is a work in progress. But at least not in the past several years, I have never had a short or medium range bust the magnitude of forecasting a whiff for New England and verifying feet of snow.
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Rent free space in your grape ftw
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Only thing better than watching you forecast mid atlantic snow is watching it verify as either 3 feet for @dendriteor 19" for me...best part wasn' the snow, but your dissapearence for a week, thereafter.
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Funny how that flipped....a few days ago the EPS was nice and the GEFS are nasty.
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Differences are due to the PNA ridge IMO...its much taller on the GFS and more borad on the GEM.
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That is close to a very nice solution...story of the past few years.
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I'll take that at this point.
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I was thinking the same, exact thing. Hey, I hope he is right...like I said, I want no part of ice.
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Oh, in that case...60 to Caribou.
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Believe me, I have no interest in ice.
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Its a global model, which will not resolve a cold tuck adequately....but you (should) know this-
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Sounds like the 00z OP EURO...maybe a hair less amped.
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I am worried about ice in my area....any power disruption is fatal with 3 kids under the age of 5.
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He doesn't lurk unless its reaslistic.....but yea, a big dog would require come real luck...but a mod event is well within reason.
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Especially with light fall rates, the residual cold will be slow to erode with any type of replenishing advection process at all...ironically enough we would be better off with heavy precip.
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You know there is a legit chance when Heiny lurks in here.
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NAM has a myriad of different issues as a model, but I thermals fields in warm advection scenarios is not one of them.....its the one thing that I DO trust it with.
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Well, far from a certainty next week works out.
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You know...if I grab 2" mid week, and then several early next week, that puts me over 30" on the month. Not too bad.
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If we could catch a break next Monday, I think that could go a long way towards flipping the script on this season for SNE.
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Euro will probably nail the 60s and whiff on the storm next Monday.
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Those images don't look much different to me.
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Its kind of like a Feb 2006 set up...not suggesting a system that large.
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I think I am about normal, too, at 24".
