40/70 Benchmark

He never goes on record himself...he just likes to cherry pick quotes out of the open stream of consciousness that is a weather forum to try to twist the thoughts of those that do. I remember he made some effort with the "Ginxy Gale" stuff several years back, but gave it up to shovel doggie doo when the going got tough. More time to pass judgement, now I guess.

I not being disingenuous about anything. All of my thoughts are on record; I'm sorry you can't seem to wrap your mind around that, but that is your problem, not mine.

My hopes are pretty low...I have one foot in the draft room.

It won't.

I'm not sure why you seem to be so disoriented, but venting frustration over a dearth of model "cinema", as Tip would say, is not a forecast. Unlike you, I go to great lengths to ensure "the record" is very clear as pertains to my expectations. That said, gun to head, I don't think the 24th works out in terms of a large event.

No, I did not. This period has always been the last threat....its been my stance since the fall, dude. February 2024 Outlook February Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1977,1978,1980,1983,1995,2003,2007,2010(x2) The apex of intense high latitude blocking conjoins with frequent PNA flexes to mark the pinnacle of the season for winter weather fans across the eastern US, especially the mid Atlantic region. The coastal plain should be the focus, as more winter storm threats should follow the early month NESIS window. The culmination of the seasonal progression of El Niño results in a Modoki like configuration as the event decays. *****The recovery of the PV is accompanied by more prominent RNA to fuel modification and an early end to winter throughout most of the east late in the month and into early March. But not before another Archambault window from about February 11 through March 3, which may also place an emphasis on the Mid Atlantic.***** Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite (1951-2010): (1991-2010) The transition from canonical early season form to full-fledged Modoki is apparent. February is obviously the coldest month of the DM composite across the east. February 2024 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: Temperatures range from near normal to as much as 2F below across New England to as much as 2-4F below normal across the Mid Atlantic. 1991-2020: February 2024 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020:

I am up from 29" to 30" after the inch last night.

2/11 to 3/3 was my second big dog window from last fall, so no way did I ever call winter before 2/24.

No, I have always said after the 2/24 threat its over.

All three major ensemble means are lock-in-step between the islands and BM. Impressive....god, don't do it, Ray...please stop.

18z GEFS looks pretty sweet. This looks like a Friday deal, so probably looking at a Tuesday First Call and Thursday Final.

Pretty good cross guidance support for a biggie Feb 24th, so let's see how mother mature manufactures a way to access that last crevice with what remains of my Outlook to result in the least snow imaginable for SNE during my identified 2/11 to 3/3 window.

Factor in last year and that narrative changes.

Things that will delay Ray's draft prep for 1000, Scooter.

Tip would argue that your clinical need probably predated the inception of his threads.

Yea, I see what you mean there. I was speaking from a track standpoint. True.

I think in '02, it was so cold and the S stream so immense that it just encompassed the entire eastern half of the US....kind of the warm ENSO cousin of 1995.

Sometimes in an active N strema year, the N steam goods can get you en route to the phase at the coast...probably what happened in years like 77, 04, 08, 10, 13 and 17

I still don't like the look of the GEFS...trended badly from 06z, I thought....north again. GEPS looked good.

I would weigh anything that doesn't snow/snows a little over anything that snows alot-

Stand by on that....go back three weeks and look at the posts RE February.

I feel like that is just as large a mitigating factor of CC than temps and probably more so, given that them rises are more realized on clear nights.

Thankfully its south of me and its Saturday.

e12, 17 ans 27 are worth my while...the rest, I'd pass.

Yea, I agree....which is why I said that.