40/70 Benchmark

Yea, the blocking has showed up as advertised this year, though admittedly this last stretch was more muted than originally expected. But the issue plaguing this season is that the cold has loaded on the other side of the globe...and whenever it did make it over here, its residence was brief because there was always a Pacific jet extension ready to flex. These are the issues I need to get a better grasp of. I feel like the jet extensions maybe tied to the warm pool off of Japan, but I am at a loss for what determines which side of the globe that the cold loads...perhaps its related to the jet extension issue?

My honest opinion with no sarcasm intended is that the past several years would have sucked 100 years ago, but the nights have been significatnly warmer than they would have been and the very warmest days are even warmer. I am sure there have also been some marginal events that have been more tedious than they would have a century ago, but I honestly don't believe this would have been a fruitful period for SNE snow enthusiasts at any point in our history. West Pacific forcing has always sucked for this area in that regard since the dawn of time and it always will...there have been prolonged stretchs like this spanning several years in the past....but sure, this "warmest season ever" every other year is definitely CC aided, and mostly while we sleep. It can be argued that the west PAC warm pool that is predisposing us to said Maritime forcing is at least partially attributable to CC and it probably is to a degree, but I have a hard time accepting the fact that mother nature will not find a means to have that phenomenon self-destuct at some point.

Yea, sell the shit out of winter this month. We sping

I'm over it....the way I look at it is stretches of winters like this are akin to paying taxes....necessary evil.

No, Boston did fine...I just got screwed.

2017-2018 was my last good winter....I was still over 10" below average snowfall in 2020-2021.

Which site do you guys prefer for H5 charts from past dates?

It feels good to give in and have weenies replaced by heart emojis from the warm crew...I could get use to this for next year.

Move on and hand out some parking tickets.

It obviously wouldn't help alter the Pacific SSTs....that is more of an infuence with respect to the extra tropical atmosphere to favor more ridgin over the western CONUS and troughing east. You can see it clear as day in Raindance's data.

Its affecting everything...absolutely.

Yea, no argument from me on that for March. Looks toasty here.

I thought it was Tip

There aren't many in my life worse than this one...top of head: 1991-1992, 1994-1995, 2001-2002 and 2011-2012 Honorable Mention for 1998-1999 and 1999-2000

We do.

It's one thing to be have insight into CC, it's another entirely to correctly account for it in a seasonal forecast. The latter is my issue....not in denial about anything.

We could have had a big storm or two with some luck IMO.

I'm not sure how you could forecast something that extreme at a seasonal level.

Exactly. Goes to show not only how warm it was, but how unlucky we were.

You don't know anything until you realize how little you know.

One thing I have learned to watch for is that bathtub off of Japan during outlook season. I have been doing this a decade, but still have so much to learn....really starting to expand my scope to a gloabl level when seeking out indicators.

I'm not sold on strong yet...it could be moderate. ..but with a very active tropical season I think the floor next year is maybe like 1998-1999, which is still a bit better than this year for most. Funny, you would think I had a great forecast by just eyballing the forecast H5 composite vs reality, but it just didn't translate.