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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I commented earlier that this set up reminds me of 2007...it looks hostile for NE winter with a cursory glance, but if you squint, you can see how New England could do okay in terms of snowfall with cold nearby.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't need any convincing that this La Nina will act stronger than implied by ONI. No doubt.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wasn't on Eastern in 2005. It was 2006. I'm positive...and you were right, as that winter torched. Remember? Jack O (RIP), the dude who started SV was all over region 1.2 leading the way in warm winter el Nino seasons, like that one.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, it wasn't. It was the fall of 2006...no question in my mind. I joined Eastern in the fall of 2006 and it was that year.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Warmest winter call was 2006, not 2005. Keep in mind, I am not arguing for a "cold" winter...my confidence is that it will be snowier for at least SNE, which isn't saying much.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should always be prepared for the worst, so sound advice.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Remember Erin and Katrina in FL ...came in as intensifying cat 1's and damage looked more like cat 2. Intensifying systems more proficiently mix down stronger wind gusts.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    A- Nothing and Noone is forecasting RI. B- All guidance has shifted north into TX, not just the HAFS.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    What did Boston get, 9" last year? I'll bet anyone right now $100 that we beat that.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course the NAO will be positive, I told you that back in May when you were doubting it...all I'm saying is that the January chart that I commented on is an example of how to salvage a decent winter in NE with a +NAO and healthy la Nina. Hindsight outlook 2007 and let me know how that looked for winter in New England..save for the QBO, but ACE will likely be higher this year.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think a healthy cat 1 is a good bet.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    This I agree with....just saying, my money is on a better winter than last season for a lot of NE (especially SNE), even if still somewhat subpar.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, there was some sarcasm implied....
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we would do okay in this...that looks servicable enough to provide chances with the with the lower heights in Canada and the PV elongated in the general direction of the northeast.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think people are conditioned to perceive another virtually snowless winter if guidance doesn't have "1995-1996" in neon lights on the stamp.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    That still looks like a much better pattern than last year to me. Canada looks much colder and the PV is elongated towards the NE US.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its time for one of your patented "Jeb Walks"......particularly one that takes you in the opposite direction from your keyboard.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree. That is the scenario that I laid out in my First Call last night.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting...I hadn't factored the compact nature into my assessment when considering regeneration...perhaps my TX landfall intensity is conservative. Something to ponder over the weekend before taking a Final stab at it.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    The weakening at the last moment prior to landfall was expected, as the system reentered the hostile shear zone.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is where my First Call from last night went.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hmmmm....
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    No....not my focus. Not paying attention to inland track, but I don't think this will be a Harvy-like epic flood because it should keep moving. Austin will probably see some rain...
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The decrease in foreward speed over the SW GOM may not promote that much upwelling considering the system will be much weaker...important not to lose sight of that since we are used to conceptualizing this system as a powerhouse. I think it will be speeding up again due to trough interaction closer to the coast by the time it regains hurricane strength.
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