40/70 Benchmark

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Yeah, basically it's when someone says "I have perfect girl for you, she's so nice!"

"What does she look like?"

"She has a beautiful heart".

This storm is very good natured.

1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

As one of the Maine folks who got about 3" of sleet last weekend, my snowblower and I assure you it can happen. 

My record is 8" snow/sleet combo in VD Day 2007.

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Reggie and Namerella run in 45 minutes, we shall see how 12z looks

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"Got any cute cousins"?

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I still say we won't have a better idea of what to expect until we see how this system evolves moving through the Great Lakes today/tomorrow. How far north the warm front really gets will significantly influence convective evolution and the entire system in general. 

"She weighs 632lbs, but let me wait and see what she looks like".

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea it figures 

06z EURO actually has a bit less snow for SNE vs 00z.

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

It's definitely colder but sleet . Going to be a mess 

I agree it will be a mess...too bad we couldn't catch a break for once.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam and euro looked warm to me. Gfs was a lot of sleet NOP.

 

I feel like we need to look at Synoptics a bit more as this doesn’t even check off stuff for January nevermind April. It’s going to need to come south. 

Perhaps a few charts to clarify?

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m sure even that won’t pan out and we’ll be left with gentle zephyrs 

At least you finally have a good fantasy team.

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats and enjoy 

Looks like about 2-6” of rain for me 

I'd trade....

Looks like about 1-3" of slush and sleet for me.

3 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said:

Then suddenly!

 

"WAGONS SOUTH!"

We have had runs (usually 12z) inch southward, but the aggregate trend has been north.

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think we are going to have a great idea on how this will unfold until probably Tuesday evening. With multiple rounds of convection these next few days within the Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley that is surely going to greatly impact many of the key features, including the primary. With the degree of convection which seems likely along the warm front these next few days (including today) this may help shunt the warm front south a bit. It is also possible the primary low ends up being farther south and not thrown into Michigan like some guidance is showing. I think the GFS may be too far north partly because it seems to be somewhat too aggressive with how far north into the mid country the warm front lifts and ultimately it is pegging a northerly displaced MCS and subsequently, farther north with the primary. 

I think we have a stupendous idea of how it will evolve right now.

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d hold off up there. Latitude will matter. But yeah, you want a tick south. N of pike crowd between pike and ASH/MHT can still get a big system if this nudges south a little but the trends haven’t been favorable the last 24 hours. 

Its gone. Nothing trends favorably.

Zzzzzzzzzz

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks a bit warmer and north again. Almost game over for SNE but it does still hit ORH county to Berkshires decent. 

Hoping for on more tick north so I can 86 the blogs.

Thank God for that huge block to stop the primary from getting through the lakes.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's amazing even with the blocking.  Usually we will have a weaker primary and a transfer further south but in these past winters.

It seems like every event we get a lecture about how it would have been through Montreal without it, but instead its 34 and rain. I think frankly I am all set with it.

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Prob gonna check out on this one soon. I’ll give it another couple cycles though since there is still some spread south/colder. But this is starting to get the feeling of an NNE elevation storm and not the more cleanly phased tempest over the benchmark up to ACK. 
 

Gonna need a shift south on subsequent cycles. 

Amazing how the trend that we do not want is what always prevails these past few seasons. Just unreal.

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gun to head right now.....4-8" of slop IMBY.

Not a bad guess...

Gun to head right now.....4-8" of slop IMBY.

I'm glad I have some latitude because how far north it gets when/if it gets captured will be huge.

That was the most explosive solution yet...only issue for SNE (of course) is it got captured just a hair too far NW.....I'm walking the line on that.

We have this thing doing a blizzard loop over se MA on Thursday PM now....get that over the islands, then we can talk HECS over SNE.

But as is...I see why the discrepancy over saying the Uk is inland....it must be doing what the EURO is....technically it is inland, but not because it's a hugger....it's doing a blizzard loop and getting captured.

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

On the off chance low does capture and tug, how high does the weenie shoot up?

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As high as the ceiling?

Looks like the trend tonight on the EURO and UK is to not allow it to escape and really capture/tug it back west....believe that when I see it. It's often modeled and seldom works out....even within 12 hours we see model fails on that.