40/70 Benchmark

Ukie gives me about a foot....matches EURO and GEM pretty well.

GEPS and EPS are great....GEFS are iffy, but good north of about rt 2.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a nice look. Hopefully it stays that way or even ticks south.

Deepening 985mb on the mean right over the BM.

That was def. the best EPS yet....def. up a step from 12z yesterday.

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s been very good this season to be honest.  Numerous events the depth change has been much closer to reality with so many marginal temp events.  The 10:1 maps stacking up white rain that the depth maps got right.

I think on the hill tops Kuchera could work, but I would def. stay slower to + depth change in the lower terrain.

Looks like a First Call Sunday/Final Call Tuesday given Wednesday onset.

I like seeing the cut back from 12z yesterday in N ME.

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Start typing you will thank me later. Its Classic Ray

EPS tightened up overall and got more intense....better NOP, but a bit less SOP.

Yea....we type.

12z EPS is even a little better than yesterday's bonkers mean.

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m not sure about that actually.  The Boston burbs often have climo averages in the 50s with decent retention.  The city-sure.

They probably have better retention that the E MA CP because they don't get the marine intrusions or the DSD days....kind of the inverse on how Kev doesn't get upslope like the ORH hills because he is more of a single hill than a chain. That area of VT doesn't get the general downslope on a prevailing westerly flow like the CP does.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Finger hits enter…

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z EPS likes EMA.

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Brattleboro is essentially Greenfield, MA like Hippy said.  Literally the same exact climate in the CT Valley there at the MA/VT/NH borders.

Maybe even worse than Greenfield because it has slightly higher terrain east and west.

Kind of plays in to what you and I were discussing last night with respect to how being in an interior valley can be worse than being on the interior CP....unless it's December and you rip ENE at the surface.

24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Pretty disturbing that Brattleboro doesn’t average much more snow vs BOS.

I can't believe that I average more than they do....never would have guessed that. What an armpit.

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That looks nice, but show me the EPS.

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Finger hits enter…

In all seriousness, I wouldn't have a First call until tomorrow, at the earliest.

Yea, the GEM is more like yesterday's runs.

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Waiting to click send after the euro narcan maps. Anxiously rocking back and forth in his Wilmington varsity wind breaker. 

Ruthless clowns

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’ll blog if Methuen has a chance of 2”. But if a blizzard impacts the area and he gets 8” it won’t be good enough. 

That just happened last event and I never touched it.

Funny how seasonal trends supposedly don't matter, yet we see the same damn trend we have all season.

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well without it this would be a raging cutter and fropa for everyone. 

I'd rather that than what is modeled at the moment.

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

No changes. 
 

Gonna need a subtle south shift if we want to get more of SNE in the game. 

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s a subtle trend but the WAA and main coastal CCB have become a little more disjointed since yesterday. So it’s actually done two things:

1. Push the threat ever so slightly north 

2. Slightly reduced the ceiling of a higher end KU type storm total max zone

These are subtle trends and could easily shift back but they could also keep shifting the way they did overnight which would lessen the impact further. 

Yea, I was dissapointed last night. Oh well.

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

He did it. We did not do it.

I'm always up that late on a weekend...only difference was I posted.

The southward tend on the EPS has ceased....looks to about steady from 18z and a tick N of the nuts 12z run. Trend tonight on the EURO suite is a bit less of an impressive of a system overall, but this is largely noise.

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@NoCORH4LWhat I mean is that often times in marginal Spring snow storms, the interior valleys struggle more than the coastal plain of interior NE MA....largely due to the fact that there is no element of downslope on the coastal plain during these storms, which can be fatal when thermals are borderline.  Additionally, if there is a cold source north of ME, then it can funnel into this area.

Take a look at some of the snow maps from historic spring storms.....there is often an appendage of somewhat higher amounts arching from the ORH hills into interior ne MA. This is especially relevant here since the primary may be gaining quite bit of latitude prior to the transfer.

Case en point...the 00z EURO.