40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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My feelings are on the SAI is that is is a useful tool, but he doesn't use it correctly. Its but one indicator to be weighed against everything else, and predicating entire seasonal forecasts on it, as he does, is a recipe for failure.
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I think its relatively likely for December....PNA is more dubious, but so far....it looks like the PDO may not be as hostile as originally feared, so...
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Virtual GTG This Weekend...Any Interest?
40/70 Benchmark replied to Cold Miser's topic in New England
Count me in....just so you all know, pants will be OFF -
I may do another one on EMI (el nino modoki index), or just integrate that into the ENSO section of the actual outlook...not sure.
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It was just too tedious the other way. I feel it distracted people from the point of the whole damn exercise, which to to convey my thoughts as to how the ensuing winter will evolve. However, the guys like @HoarfrostHubb, who like the foundational material, can simply clink the link.
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Here is the last one on the EPO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/winter-2020-2021-addendum-5-east.html
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These are just basic refreshers to get primed for the actual outlook....if you don't need it, then don't bother. I know that I usually do...especially for the tropical stuff. This should help shorten the finished product and make it more practical for consumption.
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Addendum #4: The Pacific Oscillations: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/winter-2020-2021-addendum-4-pacific.html
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Addendum #3: The Arctic Atmosphere: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/winter-2020-2021-addendum-3-arctic.html
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2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1996 was marginal...okay, but by what metric was 2001 a moderate la nina? It was weak by all accounts, as far as I'm concerned. -
2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looks like it will be a moderate la nina to me. -
Yes, I meant for SNE.
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I don't value you that as much as some do...I know raindance is big on that. But again.....just because I incorporate an analog does not mean I endorse it 100%. A concept I wish people could grasp more assertively with respect to politics.
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Its not a problem if you apply them correctly, which I will attempt to do. Not all about blocking, though....you guys need it to couple with a PNA spike, usually. SNE ca get away with one or the other.
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Its around average, I think...which makes sense.
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Its pretty self explanatory......IMHO those are the best matches using a combo of ENSO intensity and distribution of warmest SST anomalies. I mean, we are mainly referencing "anomalies" when speaking of sensible weather, so I don't see why the end result should be much different. I def. would shy away from using very potent la nina as analog seasons, given that ENSO may not be as a pervasive driver due to AGW.
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That is not my complete composite....just the three best ENSO matches by a combo of structure and intensity.
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Last update from me until go-time Novie 11. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/mixed-signals-regarding-enso-for-winter.html
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2011 and 1999 were also fairly east-based, so no sure thing...but helps.
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14OCT2020 19.6-1.2 23.6-1.3 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.9 Region 1.2 hanging tough at -1.2.....3.4 down to -1.4
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Almost like the ENSO deformation zone haha Exactly. Same page....pinning the forcing west is never a bad thing.
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Do you agree with what I said about potentially keeping westward progression at bay?
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This may explain why la nina hasn't been migrating westward as assertively as guidance had suggested.
