40/70 Benchmark

Yea, its not a bad match. I just didn't include it in the composite bc I binned by QBO, but ENSO is similar...just a bit more delayed. I think this warm ENSO event is a bit better coupled with atmosphere, though. We'll see.

Gotcha. I'm not a big math guy....social worker by trade. I can do that in the future, but the forecast amounts vs actual are there for everyone to see. I'm quite happy with my level of success overall, last year not withstanding.

Thanks, but I'll leave it. Forecast error for me is the percentage that verified seasonal snowfall totals deviated from my forecast range. Regardless, the forecast and verified totals are there to see. It was bad in sne. I focus most on snowfall, and its much less in the northeast than last season's forecast. Additionally, the forecast is not as cold as the composite maps...I specified that. Last season, I forecast an epic second half..this season, its onky salavagable with blocking. It wasn't that warm in the east last year. Good luck-

Thanks, Tom. I have learned alot from your work, as always.

Like I just said in mid atl forum, it was difficult for me to communicate the potential of the second half, while concomitantly conveying that it was lower confidence due to the reliance upon the onset of blocking. I am more confident in the PNA period. I feel at least some blocking materializes second half....but it will suck if it doesn't. Should be some NAO in Dec, too, but transient.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/winter-2019-2020-modified-modoki.html City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 45-55” ? ? New York, NY 20-30" ? ? Philadelphia, PA 17-27" ? ? Baltimore, MD 15-25” ? ? Washington, DC 15-25” ? ? Albany, NY 65-75” ? ? Hartford, CT 50-60” ? ? Providence, RI 40-50” ? ? Worcester, MA 70-80” ? ? Tolland, CT 60-70" ? ? Methuen, MA 65-75” ? ? Hyannis, MA 20-30” ? ? Burlington, VT 80-90" ? ? Portland, ME 70-80” ? ? Concord, NH 65-75” ? ? Index Value Predicted '19-'20 DM Value Range Actual '19-'20 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 0 to .30 ? ? Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) .15 to .45 ? ? ENSO Weak Modoki El Nino (0.3 to 0.5C ONI) (NDJ) 0.5C NDJ ONI .50 Modoki ? (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) -.15 to -.45 ? ? Arctic Oscillation (AO) 0 to -.30 ? ? North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -.15 to .15 ? ?

I wasn't suprised at all.

@raindancewx Thanks alot for the awesome data updates....very much appreciated. Tough to keep up as much this fall with a newborn. I remember looking at how paltry the ECMWF was with the ENSO peak last year and Isummarily dismissed it, which I seldom do. I was waiting to include it in my last blog update, but ended up leaving it out. Lol

Fine with me...whatever the majority wants...

He just means relative to fall sensible weather.

I listed Saturday 12/21 as an option...

None of the BS we had last season...we need to settle on a date and time to discuss what should be a decently wintery month of December. Oops.. sneak preview of outlook? We should do Monday 12/16, Friday 12/20, or Saturday 12/21, since Monday 12/23 isn't an option because Will usually melts if its too close to the holiday.

Shift last season a bit se, and it would have been good. It has incorrectly gotten associated with some pretty awful seasons by people staring at the KBOS seasonal total on an excel file....but it really was not like those years. Don't get me wrong..consensus forecast of banner year bombed, but it was not an awful pattern...more a serviceable pattern during which southern New England was snake bitten.

February 2007, 1995 and 2010 are all patterns that I would take another roll of the dice with, though.

I'd keep an eye on the MEI....it was +.30 as of AS value. SO should be higher.

Don't completely agree...

I def. agree with the translation eastward of the developing el nino...much like last year. That is that main difference between this season and 2014..el nino is developing a bit later and is working from west to east, whereas that year it was east to west. Otherwise, 2014 is a good ENSO analog.

Since you said that it suggested positive last year, I count 10 hits, 3 whiffs and 1 neutral. Pretty good, despite the terrible showing two years ago.

DM NAO ended up being +.74 , so pretty big miss for your indicator that season, which was very negative. However it is worth noting that March was a very big NAO....

I found my reference to your work...it was the outlook for not last winter, but the previous one. Perhaps one of the most skilled forecasters on a forum replete with talented meteorologists and hobbyists alike, in americanwx.com, "StormchaserChuck" devised a formula roughly a decade ago that predicts the mean aggregate state of the NAO for the ensuing winter using the SSTs in an area of the north Atlantic. We strongly endorse this methodology as the most accurate predictor available for the mean state of the winter NAO. The following methodology is a wonderful illustration of the delayed feedback between sea and air that represents the very essence of the elaborate system of atmospheric oscillations that we so often reference. "In 2006 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2006-2007 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was 7). Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact: 2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter .. Yes 2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Yes 2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Yes 2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... even 2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Strong Yes 2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Yes 2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Yes 2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Yes 2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 9-1-2 This index as a value forecasting tool is proven high, although the scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in my opinion. Since so many people have asked me about this in the last few years, I thought it a good idea to make a post. The index is a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter. When red box is warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. The index this year is strong -NAO. Top 10-15 negative index of all predictive years going back to 1948 (69)". Needless to say, we believe that the case for a predominately -NAO phase this winter is a strong one, and this means that it is more likely than not that the arctic oscillation will also be in its negative mode more often than not. But we can look far above the sea surface of the equatorial Pacific to find more definitive indicators.

2004 and 1976 were pretty epic in SNE, too. I would agree that this isn't a clear-cut blockbuster season, though.

9-3-2? What does 2 denote, a tie? Lol Yea, I remember it caught on with Jack O (RIP), too. Raindance reminds me of him.

So you nailed it. Maybe the year before it was that you were going very negative and it missed I remember I was a fan of your work back in Eastern...good luck this year.

You predicted negative NAO last year, didn't you?

No one is calling for a snowmageddon in New England, but I don't see any awful signs is the point.