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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. The Pacific flow is done when the calendar flips...the PAC air is gone after the first week of December.
  2. My holidays are going to verify just fine.
  3. It starts with T Giving for me...sets the mood and tone for the holiday season/winter.
  4. Glad we will be in Methuen, instead of Wilmington this season....may chop a few degrees off.
  5. Thank god....much rather have Thanksgiving dinner amid cloudy skies and temps near 40, as opposed to sunny and 60. Now it will feel like a holiday.
  6. I think you read a bit too much into that....all I meant was a neutral NAO beats the hell out of the exotic positives that we have grown accustomed to. I never said its the entire story HAHA. I lived through 2009-2010 here in SNE, so trust that I know a negative NAO is not a panacea. lol You are also correct that there is more to the NAO domain than the assigned numerical index value.
  7. People are getting wayyyyy ahead of themselves with this. Lets gain a measure of confidence for a serviceable pattern here in NE, before hoisting the warnings for NC.
  8. Does the reason begin with an "H", and end with an "L"...?
  9. The NAO help isn't a surprise to me, but I did not expect PNA in December....that would be a welcome addition.
  10. I knew all of the bridge jumping over December was BS. Just let it play out...
  11. That doesn't look bad...especially week 3.
  12. I like that....maybe your most valuable contribution all fall.
  13. Where is Kevin and his sleigh full of weenies when you need them...
  14. Yea, the NAO is only helpful if you have cold air already in place...in this case, rather run this risk of a hugger, than have a good track with no cold.
  15. I only used it as a secondary analog because of the ONI and MEI criteria that I employed, but that season is one of the better sensible weather analogs for how I see this winter playing out. Even the blocking just east of Greenland was a very prevalent feature in my composite.
  16. Do you mean due to the stagnation of a neg NAO...IE, not allowing the old Pac puke to bleed out?
  17. Right....I think climo and the cold reservoir improve throughout the month.
  18. SO MEI value held at -1.2 https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
  19. I think "the first half of December shows signs of improvement" is more accurate.
  20. The Whale released him after he tried to rope it into coauthoring the Dawn Awakening...
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