40/70 Benchmark

Awesome.

Plenty of time to sort that out. I haven't looked yet.

Yea, maybe not necessarily literally after the ball drops, but around that time, give of take 1-2 days.

You know it's a lull in the pattern when the last 9 pages focus on timing the passage of a cold front. See ya in 2021.

There is a reason that I have checked out for a bit....this is inevitable.

Thursday was indeed Boxing Day part II, despite people trying to opine otherwise. Miller A systems have a better shot of: 1) Hugging so that the deformation is well west. 2) Occluding to your SW, so that deformation is weakening by the time if gets here. I'll take it over last year, but Miller A are usually flawed in this part of the region.

Like he said....pass.

I hit 2.

With a high in the atlantic? Looks like shit.

Down to 7..

So glad you're okay...I need someone to keep me in check haha

I understand that....which is why I said hopefully something pops after xmas.

I'd would expect to pull another significant winter event between now and the NY......just have to see if anything pops after xmas disaster. If not, solid December, but nothing great IMBY.

Did I say from xmas on? I said the next two weeks.

Sucks to have a boring two-week period encompassing the holidays.

Steve is back with a vengence.

Got it.

I'm not debating this, but I'm not sure how a la nina season being front loaded is illustrative of your point.

Yea, obviously not always....if the deformation is over the area, or the CF makes it further inland, then all bets are off. But I have a sneaky hatred for the really cold events like yesterday for this very reason. First of all, snow will with greater liquid content is more athetically pleasing and has better retention. Secondly, cold events are going to pin the CF well to my southeast and increase odds for OES contribution, which both act to focus LL fronto away from me....and if you also miss mid level fronto, then what's left? Basement totals-

Guidance is much better at resolving the low levels, than mid levels...we know this. Its why guidance often over estimates QPF to the east of the H7 low, and underestimates it to the northwest of it.

I think we can now say with confidence that a 1975-1976 scenario is about the worst possible outcome. You can essentially toss the wretched la nina analogs considering how the first half of December has evolved.

If you are looking for widespread > 12", sure.

John, I know you mentioned that there is a propensity for interior NE MA and SE NH to get into screw zones in the big KU events, and I agree. I have always said that. I think its two things: 1) Low level fronto often focuses near the coast, which increases the chance for subsidence in that area. 2) That phenomenon that you were mentioning with regard to the barrier jet advecting drier air in from Maine on a NNE flow. I know someone like Will will tell me that everywhere gets screwed at one time or another, and that is true....but I do think that there are certain regional meso phenomena that make certain areas more prone than others.

Yesterday was dissapointing, but I saw that coming about 5 days out.

I need a dopamine fix, and am not seeing it.